Vladimir Putin has suspended the New Start nuclear disarmament treaty. Is there a threat of escalation? A Pentagon official classifies the situation soberly.
Moscow/Washington – Vladimir Putin’s State of the Union address was eagerly awaited. Especially since the traditional New Year’s speech was surprisingly omitted. At the time there were rumors that Putin would lack positive news about the Ukraine war for his speech. The focus was all the more on this new speech.
What Putin followed caused a shake of the head, however. The head of the ARD studio in Brussels, Markus Preiß, called the overly long explanation of how the devilish West forced Russia into a war an “impressive testimony to a loss of reality”. Even a Duma deputy publicly mocked Putin. Even a Russian hardliner dissected Putin’s speech.
Putin’s ‘New Start’ Suspension: Is the Danger of Nuclear Escalation Rising?
The only really tangible thing that remained of the speech was an announcement: Russia would suspend the “New Start” nuclear disarmament treaty, according to Putin. It was the only major deal left between the US and Russia. On Tuesday, Putin signed the relevant law suspending “New Start”.
But what does that mean? Does this increase the risk of a nuclear escalation?
According to assessments from the USA, the clear answer is: no.
Russia doesn’t have the resources for an “unrestricted” nuclear arms race like it did during the Cold War, Pentagon official and Undersecretary for Defense Policy Colin H. Kahl told CNN. Russia simply does not have the money for such an arms race, especially given the burden of the Ukraine war, sanctions and export controls, Kahl continues.
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“So, you know, I think that was a way for him to generate some rhetorical headlines. But I think in practical terms it hasn’t changed the situation,” CNN quoted the official as saying. Then Kahl followed up with a warning: If Russia were to use its nuclear weapons, US politicians had already made it “very clear” that this would have serious consequences.
Although one must of course remain vigilant, Kahl considers it unlikely that Putin will actually use nuclear weapons: “They have already broken the inspection regime and used Covid and other things as an excuse. It is also interesting that Putin decided to suspend the treaty instead of leaving it. I think that’s actually an indication that it’s not an effective leverage on us,” Kahl said in a hearing before the House Armed Services Committee, according to CNN. (rjs)
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