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The economies of most of the 23 countries in Central and Eastern Europe will continue to grow in 2023 despite the war in Ukraine, albeit with slowing activity and the risk of inflation, according to the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies.
Most Central and Eastern European countries will continue on a growth path in 2023 despite the war in Ukraine, according to a forecast by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
“While high inflation poses serious problems for households and businesses, this is not the first time we have seen impressive resilience in the region,” said Richard Grieveson, wiiw deputy director, in a statement.
According to the expert, “(Russian President Vladimir) Putin’s strategy of using energy as a weapon has failed,” among other reasons, because the countries of central, eastern, and southeastern Europe quickly managed to reduce their gas consumption. .
The Institute forecasts that the countries of the region that are members of the European Union, EU, will experience economic growth of 1%, above the 0.2% forecast for the block.
According to the wiiw, the countries of the southeast have proven to be quite “resilient”, while those of the so-called Visegrad Group, made up of Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Poland, will have an average growth of 0.6%, with the exception of the Hungarian economy, which will fall by 1%.
“Although growth will be significantly lower than last year, a full-year recession will be largely avoided in the vast majority of cases, except in Hungary and Russia, whose economies will continue to decline this year (-3%), following the contraction of 2.5% in 2022”, indicated the wiiw in its analysis.
These deductions indicate that most of the countries in the region have already “digested” much of the economic impact caused by the war launched by Russia against Ukraine, at least under the premise that Moscow does not escalate the intensity of the conflict.
If this does not happen, the economy of these countries should begin to pick up in the second half of 2023. Although the war in Ukraine continues to be the main factor of economic uncertainty, the wiiw also points out that inflation, despite having already passed its maximum, it is still high.
with EFE
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