Employment | The jobs of more and more Finns are now under threat – “This is inevitable”

Several in recent weeks, the companies have said that they will start change negotiations.

Among others, Kesko, Telia, Gigantti, the software company Aiven, Valmet Automotive, Pihlajalinna, Stora Enso, UPM, Rauma shipyard company RMC, Verkkokauppa.com, Kontiotuote, Kaleva Media, Swappie and Fiskars have announced that they will start change negotiations.

“For the past couple of years, there have been terribly no announcements about change negotiations. A clear translation has taken place”, says OP’s chief analyst Antti Saari.

According to Saari, the change indicates above all that the economy is cooling down and that companies need to react to this change. When demand weakens and there are fewer orders in the order books, companies have to react.

The flurry of change negotiations does not apply to any specific sector right now, notes Labore’s leading researcher for Labor and economic research Merja Kauhanen. Some of the companies that have started change negotiations are making good results, so it is not necessarily a question of financial challenges for all companies.

In companies, the turn of the year may be linked to updating the strategy. Due to the reorganization of operations, there will be change negotiations.

Finland the economy is likely to sink into recession. According to Saari, some kind of weakening of the employment situation is almost inevitable in the context of a recession. However, we are starting the recession from an exceptionally good employment situation.

Read more: Finland is sinking into recession: this is what it means

In November the employment rate rose to an almost record high of 74.7 percent.

The effect of the economic situation on unemployment is a “necessary evil”.

“In a certain way, this is inevitable in order to cool down the economy and calm inflation. Probably to this [Euroopan keskuspankki] The ECB is also trying. It’s short-term pain, but a way to get inflation under control,” says Saari.

Situation may seem contradictory. A wave of change negotiations is underway, but there has been repeated news about the shortage of experts in various fields. It’s not just about the chronic shortage of nurses, but there is a shortage for example, restaurant workers, kindergarten teachers and many other experts.

During Christmas, it was also reported that the technology industry is plagued by a severe labor shortage and that the industry needs tens of thousands of new workers this decade.

“Last year, the key word was labor shortage. It was wide-ranging, and it was difficult to get employees,” says Kauhanen.

There is still a labor shortage in some sectors.

Skill shortage in several different fields and the flurry of change negotiations are not mutually exclusive, but may very well appear at the same time. The skills shortage is a long-term thing, while the recession is a passing phenomenon.

In the long term, more experts are needed in various fields, because the population is aging.

According to Saari, there is not really a contradiction in the number of change negotiations and the lack of talent for another reason either. It’s about the fact that the labor market doesn’t always meet. If an industrial worker from Kuopio doesn’t have a job, it doesn’t help that a waiter position is open in Helsinki.

Labore’s leading researcher Merja Kauhanen says that companies cannot afford to let go of skilled employees. Picture: Laura Oja

From recession is expected to be mild and short.

According to Kauhanen, the skills shortage may be reflected in the fact that, despite the recession, they want to keep good employees. Even if sometimes companies do worse, they cannot afford to let go of skilled employees.

Kauhanen reminds that change negotiations do not necessarily mean layoffs for all companies. It can also be layoffs or part-time jobs.

Recession income and the wave of change negotiations will probably curb the desire of employees to change their jobs, Saari estimates.

According to Saari, many people think in the fading economic situation that it is safer to stay in their current job than to change to a new one.

“Many workplaces have trial periods, for example. If there are change negotiations, there is a big risk that he will be the first to leave,” says Saari.