The autumn mud is a thing of the past, from now on frosty soil characterizes the Ukraine war. The weather in winter could affect the battles, say experts.
Kiev – The first snow fell in the Ukrainian capital of Kiev in mid-November. Since then, temperatures have continued to drop. Sub-zero temperatures are also possible during the day. This in turn has an impact on the Ukraine war. Ukraine apparently sees the chilly winter as a chance to attack Russia. But Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin’s troops also seem to be prepared for the winter.
“Opportunity for offensive actions”: new winter strategy in the Ukraine war?
Overall, US Chief of Staff Mark A. Milley sees a “potential opportunity for offensive action” by both Russia and Ukraine. The front lines had stabilized, but winter could affect the war as it did Wall Street Journal said. The war experts at the US think tank “Institute for the Study of War” (ISW) take a similar view. However, they believe that Ukraine is better prepared for the cold months.
The winter is “conducive to mechanized warfare in Ukraine”, it says in the current management report. “Ukrainian armed forces will be able to take advantage of the weather conditions as the severe late-December frost approaches.” According to the ISW, “Ukrainian troops are likely preparing to take advantage of the frozen area to defend themselves to be able to move around more easily than was possible in the muddy autumn months”. Russia will probably want to bridge the winter in order to prepare an offensive in the spring.
Winter War: “The Russian army is ill-prepared for the coming winter”
Russia should actually be used to the cold as well. However, a lack of equipment probably causes deficits. In a guest article for ZDF Two experts from the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) write: “The Russian army is poorly prepared for the coming winter.” This became clear in the phase before the major attack on February 24 with the Russian troop transfers.
DGAP analysts say: “When the escalation began, many captured Russian soldiers showed obvious signs of frostbite, cold and generally poor physical condition due to a lack of appropriate clothing and equipment. This was still the Russian professional army, which consisted of professional and contract soldiers.”
Political scientist Nico Lange also sees Russia in a bad position while UN Secretary-General Stoltenberg warns of “war in Europe”.. However, he does not know whether Ukraine can benefit from this. For that, Selenskyj’s troops would need more support, as Lange said in early November. “The fact that Ukraine does not have enough mechanized forces with battle tanks, armored personnel carriers and tracked troop carriers at its disposal during the phase of Russian weakness in recent weeks could go down in military history as a great missed opportunity in autumn 2022.” (as)
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