The world’s largest exporter of fossil fuels until last year, Russia is expected to lose that post with a halving of its share of the international trade in oil and natural gas by the end of the decade. The estimate is from a report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The document highlights that there were already pressures on energy markets before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February this year, but its consequences have exacerbated the problem.
“Russia has been by far the world’s largest exporter of fossil fuels, but restrictions on its natural gas supply to Europe and European sanctions on Russian oil and coal imports are severing one of the main arteries of the global energy trade. ”, highlighted the IEA.
“All fuels are being affected, but gas markets are the epicenter as Russia seeks leverage by exposing consumers to higher energy bills and supply shortages,” the agency’s report noted.
The IEA noted that European policies to halt or reduce Russian fossil fuel imports are directing the country’s exports to Asian markets, “but Russia cannot find markets for all the flows that previously went to Europe.”
Not even partner China will be a good replacement, according to the report. “China’s gas demand growth will slow to 2% per year between 2021 and 2030, compared with an average growth rate of 12% per year since 2010, reflecting a policy of preference for renewable energy and electrification over use. of gas for energy and heat”, pondered the IEA.
The agency estimated that by 2025 Russia will produce 2 million less barrels of oil a day and 200 billion cubic meters less of gas for the whole year than it was in 2021.
“Russian fossil fuel exports will never return – under any of the scenarios we project – to the levels seen in 2021, and their share of internationally traded oil and gas will halve by 2030,” the IEA estimated.
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