PT has 50% against 40% of the current president in a direct confrontation. At the end of June, the score was 52% X 35%
the former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (EN) would defeat the current occupant of the Planalto, Jair Bolsonaro (PL), by 50% to 40% in a 2nd round matchup, research shows PowerDate held from July 31 to August 2, 2022. Another 5% would vote blank or nullify the vote in this scenario, while 4% are undecided.
The difference between the 2 pre-candidates, of 10 percentage points, shows a downward trend compared to previous rounds of the poll. In the survey from June 19 to 21, Lula scored 52% against Bolsonaro’s 35% – a 17-point advantage. A month later, on July 17-19, the gap was 13 points: 51% to 38%.
When a longer period is observed, the result indicates some stability. It resumes the scenario of early June, when Lula and Bolsonaro marked the same percentages.
The survey was carried out by PowerDategroup company Power 360 Journalism, with its own resources. The results are published in an editorial partnership with the TV Cultura. Data were collected from July 31 to August 2, 2022, through calls to cell phones and landlines. There were 3,500 interviews in 322 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. The margin of error is 2 percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%. The TSE registration is BR-08398/2022.
To reach 3,500 interviews that proportionally fill (as they appear in society) the groups by sex, age, income, education and geographic location, the PowerDate makes tens of thousands of phone calls. Often, there are more than 100,000 calls until the interviewees who faithfully represent the entire population are found. Learn more about the methodology by reading this text.
O PowerDate also tested a general scenario of the 1st round, with the list of candidates corresponding to when the poll was registered with the TSE (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral), on 29 July. Read more here.
SCENARIOS WITH CIRO GOMES
O pedestrian continues to record a technical tie (40% X 40%) in an eventual direct confrontation with Bolsonaro. Against Lula, he would lose by 19 points.
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POWERDATACAST
O Power 360 it’s the PowerDate periodically publish the PowerDataCast, focused exclusively on the debate of electoral and public opinion polls. The last episode featured the participation of journalist José Paulo Kupfer, who is also a columnist for the Power 360.
METHODOLOGY
The search PowerDate was carried out from July 31 to August 2, 2022. 3,500 people aged 16 years or older were interviewed in 322 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. A parametric weighting was applied to compensate for disproportionalities in the variables of sex, age, education level, region and income. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.
The interviews were carried out by telephone (for landlines and cell phones), using the URA (Audible Response Unit) system, in which the interviewee listens to recorded questions and responds through the keyboard of the device. The confidence interval of the study is 95%.
For readability, search results have been rounded. Because of this process, it is possible that the sum of some of the results is different from 100. Differences between the total frequencies and the percentages in tables of crossover of variables may appear due to non-response occurrences. This study was carried out with the resources of the PowerDatea research company that is part of the media group Power360 Journalism. The results are published in an editorial partnership with the TV Cultura. The research is registered with the TSE under the number BR-08398/2022.
RESEARCH AGGREGATOR
O Power 360 maintains a collection with thousands of surveys with known methodologies and on which it was possible to verify the origin of the information. There have been studies carried out since the 2000 municipal elections. This is the largest and longest-running survey of electoral research available on the Brazilian internet.
The database is interactive and allows you to follow the progress of each candidate. Access by clicking here.
Research information began to be compiled by the journalist Fernando RodriguesEditor-in-Chief of Power 360on its website, in the year 2000. To access the old page with the surveys, click here.
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