In the midst of the Ukraine war, a NATO report warns of a Russian attack on the alliance. A conflict between a NATO state and Russia is seen as a real possibility.
According to Western accounts, the troops of Russian ruler Vladimir Putin suffered heavy losses in the Ukraine war: Recently, for example, American media, citing US representatives, spoke of around 70,000 wounded or killed Russian soldiers. The Kremlin vehemently denies this.
A NATO report on Wednesday (July 27) drew attention to the high losses suffered by the Russian military. However, the report entitled “Russia’s military after Ukraine: on the ground, but not at the end” warned at the same time: Russia could expand the conflict to NATO territory. An attack on a NATO member is therefore considered quite possible.
Ukraine-News: NATO report warns – Russia wants to expand influence and could attack NATO territory
The four-page report was published by the NATO Defense College (NDC) in Rome. It states that although the Russian portrayal of the war in Ukraine is almost always defensive, what Russia really wants is to change the status quo. “In this regard, an attack on a NATO state remains a possibility,” the authors write. Moscow is trying to expand Russian strength and influence in former Soviet states in the west and south. At the very least, Russia wants to transform these states into so-called “failed states” or permanently fragile states.
Based on Russia’s demands on the US and NATO in December 2021, the NDC report also outlined the areas on which Moscow’s strategic ambitions are concentrated. Accordingly, it is not just about Ukraine or Moldova, where tensions have recently arisen. Rather, it is about the formation of a “military buffer zone”. This would include Poland, the Baltic States and other countries in Central East and Northern Europe.
The NATO experts also pointed out the danger of a Russian attack on NATO territory. With regard to Russian mistakes in the Ukraine war, they are also certain: “Any military maneuver against a NATO member would be better planned, better prepared and better carried out.” Because Russia would see the dispute with NATO as a really existential conflict, is to read.
Ukraine-News: NATO report expects rapid reconstruction of Russian military
In order to be able to actually achieve long-term goals, however, the Russian army must be rebuilt, the NATO report emphasizes. Russian ground forces, airborne units, marine infantry and elements of close air support suffered heavy casualties in terms of both manpower and equipment. There are also high losses among pro-Russian mercenaries in the Donbass.
But the NATO report promised a quick reconstruction of the Russian military. The reasons for this include Russia’s industrial capacity and the lessons learned from the Ukraine war. The argument for this thesis: “The Russian leadership would probably see the weakness of the armed forces as a major threat to the state and its own power.” On the way to military reconstruction, however, Russia would encounter difficulties such as pressure from abroad and sanctions give important technologies, it was said.
Ukraine News: Is NATO threatened by a Russian attack? – Report calls for active deterrence
In the background of the Ukraine war, there was often speculation as to whether and to what extent Moscow had used actual Russian military strength. At this point, the report conveys a clear opinion: “Russia has not used its entire military potential in the attack against Ukraine.” Instead, a part is being held back for a possible conflict with NATO. It was precisely for this reason that no general mobilization was ordered and the air force was only used to a limited extent.
In view of the threat from Russia, the NDC report warned NATO to be vigilant. In this context, the report also praised the decisions of the NATO summit in Madrid, which would provide a “solid framework for the future adjustment of NATO’s deterrence and defense”. Russia must be shown that NATO is militarily stronger. The means for this are the regular demonstration of NATO power and an “assertive deterrent attitude”. The Bundeswehr also wants to make a contribution to deterrence with a realignment. (bb)
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