Northern Ireland, which for a century has been run by unionist governments that have defined themselves as British, is holding elections to renew the Legislative this Thursday, May 5. But for the first time, the polls point to a victory for the Sinn Fein party, once the political arm of the IRA, precursor of a violent era with which it demanded independence from the United Kingdom. The change of turn in the voters would be rooted in a nonconformity before the new economic and social needs.
From former political arm of the IRA to likely leader of the Northern Ireland Government.
Thirty years ago, the Irish Republican Army (IRA) bombed Downing Street with three mortar rounds while then-UK Prime Minister John Majo was chairing a cabinet meeting.
For a century the province has been led by unionist or pro-British governments, but now, Voting intention polls point to the nationalist political party Sinn Fein, a former political arm of the IRA, as the movement that would obtain the majority in the Assembly of Northern Ireland, with 90 seats, in the elections this Thursday, May 5.
According to the polls, his advantage is 8 percentage points over the opposition groups. If confirmed at the polls, for the first time in the province’s 117-year history, the nationalist party would become the majority in the Northern Irish government.
That move would give Sinn Fein the job of prime minister, something it has never achieved so far.
It would be a milestone for a caucus linked to the armed group that during decades of bloody violence tried to remove Northern Ireland from British rule. And it would bring Sinn Fein’s long-standing goal of a united Ireland a step closer, referring to both the British province and Ireland, the only country in the European Union with which it shares a land border.
Although a referendum that could result in union with the neighboring Republic of Ireland is likely to be years away, Sinn Fein sees growing momentum in that direction.
This would also be a historic change 24 years after the Good Friday peace deal ended three decades of sectarian bloodshed.
What is the new political moment in Northern Ireland due to?
Regardless of the relevant facts of history, preferences at the polls are dominated by more immediate or urgent issues for voters.
Notable among these are the long waiting lists that Northern Irish people must endure for medical care and the rising cost of living, mainly for food and fuel.
The panorama is the result of the economic consequences that Russia’s war in Ukraine has brought, the post-pandemic stage that forced large commercial closures and the effects of Brexit on the pockets of citizens.
“The things that the public want us to respond to is trying to put money in their pockets to help them deal with the cost of living crisis (…) I am less obsessed with dates (for a referendum) and more concerned with planning , the work must be done and the conversation about constitutional change must be had,” Sinn Fein leader Michelle O’Neill said at the launch of the ‘Time For Real Change’ campaign.
In addition, political experts highlight the moderation of ideology shown by the new generations of party politicians. Sinn Fein is run by younger leaders who expose fewer links to the IRA and Northern Ireland’s ‘The Troubles’, when 3,600 people were killed.
Although deep down the party maintains the inclination for an eventual union with Ireland, a pre-election poll in Belfast’s north district suggests seceding from the UK is not on voters’ minds.
“Sinn Fein has run a fairly nuanced campaign, a pitch for the persuadable and the middle ground,” Chris Donnelly, a political commentator and former Sinn Fein candidate, explained of the moderate push the political movement has shown towards an Ireland. united.
Pro-British concerns after Brexit
Despite the fact that everything indicates that British sovereignty will not be threatened in the short term, the political parties that defend the union of the province with the United Kingdom have taken advantage of Sinn Fein’s impulse to galvanize support against separating Ireland from the North of the rest of British territories such as England, Scotland and Wales.
“I think unionists are very concerned about what a Sinn Fein victory would mean in terms of their divisive border electoral plans,” said Jeffrey Donaldson, leader of the largest pro-British party, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).
Another key issue that the province is going through stands out on the scene: Brexit, the same issue that once again fueled the debate on a United Ireland after the majority in that region voted to stay in the European Union.
Post-divorce rules between London and Brussels imposed customs and border controls on some goods entering Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK. The agreement was designed to maintain an open border between the province and the EU member nation of Ireland, a key pillar of the peace process.
But unionists say the new controls have created a barrier between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK that undermines its British identity.
The instability has even led to increased tensions and sporadic violence, including a week of unrest in Protestant loyalist areas a year ago. Last month, protesters threw Molotov cocktails at police after a parade by Irish Republican dissidents in Derry, also known as Londonderry.
The British government is pressuring the EU to agree to major changes, such as removing most customs controls, and is threatening to unilaterally stop enforcing the rules if the bloc refuses.
Negotiations have reached an impasse, with the bloc accusing Boris Johnson of refusing to enforce the rules he agreed to in a legally binding treaty.
While Brexit raises pro-British fears about decisions Northern Ireland might make, under the power-sharing system created by the 1998 Peace Agreement, unionist rivals have the power to limit what Sinn Fein can do about it.
Still, analysts stress that a Sinn Fein victory in these elections could spell a turning point.
“It would be significant if a party committed to the change of sovereignty from the UK to a united Ireland became the largest representative party,” Donnelly added.
Full results of the election, which uses a proportional representation system, are not expected until the weekend at the earliest.
Sinn Fein is moving to an unprecedented victory and if confirmed it would be the first time this party has led on both sides of the border.
With Reuters, AP and local media
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