Despite the fact that in 1927 the psychologist Harold Lasswell established that propaganda was the fourth territory of a war, analysts allow themselves to be carried away by the passionate spirit –and in many cases justified– to characterize conflicts without passing them off as scientific observation .
The war in Ukraine should be analyzed with a more open shutter: it may be an act of political irrationality by Vladimir Putin, but there are enough elements to explain a war of positions in the construction of the new post-Cold War order.
At the Munich security summit in February 2021, US President Joseph Biden announced the return of the United States to world leadership, following President Donald Trump’s political decision to opt for geopolitical isolationism. Biden’s national security strategy published in the spring of 2021 endorsed this intention of reactivating the geopolitical and military presence of the United States in the world and, above all, its goal of rebuilding NATO and making the old wish of a European Army with the presence of armies from Latin American countries, such as Mexico, Brazil and Colombia.
In this context, in July 2021, President Putin approved the latest edition of the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation, which had been published as the first version in 2015. Political times are very important: in 2015 the geopolitical and military contradiction developed of President Obama promising the demilitarization of the world, but at the same time increasing the sending of troops to Afghanistan. And Ukraine had suffered a coup d’état operated from Washington. In 2016, Donald Trump took advantage of this regressive momentum in the US and launched his initiative to prioritize the interests of “American greatness” by strengthening the internal capitalist economic model and abandoning world geopolitical arenas.
The strategic content of Russian national security is equidistant from what Biden established for the United States: prioritizing Russia’s national interests in the geopolitical reconfiguration caused by the failure of the United States in Afghanistan and its withdrawal and the erosion of the military mobilization policy in conflict countries.
Specialist Mario Laborie explained the meaning of the new strategy:
“For the ESNR, Russia’s national interests are “the objectively significant needs of individuals, society and the state in terms of security and sustainable development”. In this sense, the following six are specified:
1. Save the people of Russia and develop their human potential;
2. Protect the constitutional system, sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity;
3. Develop a safe information space, protect Russian society from destructive information and psychological impact; while advocating the sustainable development of the Russian economy on a new technological basis;
4. Protect the environment, conservation of natural resources and adaptation to climate change;
5. Strengthen the traditional spiritual and moral values of the nation and preserve the cultural and historical heritage of the Russian people;
6. Maintain strategic stability, strengthening peace and security and the legal foundations of international relations.
There is a significant change in perspective regarding these national interests when compared to the 2015 version.
In this context, no one can declare themselves surprised by the actions of President Putin, just as no one was surprised by the immediate reaction of President Bush Jr. after the 9/11 terrorist attacks on US soil and everyone saw the invasions of Iraq as almost natural. and Afghanistan based on fabricated intelligence to circumvent UN regulations.
Unlike the ideological cold war of the 1947-1992 period, the current one no longer defends political (democracy vs. State) or economic approaches (capitalism vs. communism), but rather expresses geopolitical confrontations between two world powers with nuclear capabilities. Russia is today dominated by the interests of oligarchic business groups and US capitalism benefits the economically dominant 1% of the population.
Putin’s national security strategy has been designed to establish a geopolitical space for the survival of a political-economic model of the State against the power of the financial, business and productive corporations of the United States. The model of military confrontation –with the cases of Afghanistan and Chechnya as significant– is based on the territorial division of the planet that was inherited from the last cold war, without the intermediate countries having even been able to define a line of non-alignment or relative autonomy.
The military power of the United States, Russia and China is condemning all the countries of the world to become militaries in some of the blocs of the new world order, once again missing the opportunity to distance themselves from military and geopolitical competition from national security borders. .The war in Ukraine is part of Russia’s new security red lines. And the US confrontation with China is yet to come.
The content of this column is the sole responsibility of the columnist and not the newspaper that publishes it.
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