Russia has a wide range of means, but its functionality is questionable. The most frightening scenario is the addition of military equipment at the eastern border.
In Russia there is a possibility of using a wide range of retaliation and harassment if Finland decides to join the military alliance NATO.
Director of the Foreign Policy Institute Mika Aaltola considers, however, that none of them would paralyze Finnish society.
“I don’t think they would be any crippling, existential means to society. Influencing Russia is not as sophisticated as we imagine, ”says Aaltola.
“But they are good at creating different narratives, like the one from December, when Finland was included in Russia’s interests. This kind of setting of ukas can be quite normal in the coming years, as it has been in the Baltics in recent years, ”Aaltola reflects.
President Sauli Niinistö said Saturday Above considers it important that decision-makers and the general public in Finland understand what can happen during a possible application for NATO membership. According to the President, Russia can also target “violent” violations in Finland.
Aaltola highlights a few possible countermeasures from the Russian toolkit that may be seen in Finland during and after the NATO debate and a possible NATO decision.
Aaltola considers it clear that it would now be very difficult for Russia to embark on a hybrid operation in which it would procure land and land in Finland for later use. Finland is now much more vigilant and, for example, various Russian money laundering operations in land transactions have been made impossible.
“Creating such potential in Finland has become more difficult and the networks that have already been created have now been made empty. Finn media has done a great job of highlighting land deals. At the same time, Russia has lost a lot of this hybrid capacity. ”
Finland also no longer has any special relationship with Russia, but Finland, like other EU countries, is now considered an unfriendly country in Russia.
“Russia can no longer do any traditional Eastern trade-related management and cow trading, as was previously seen in Fennovoima, Fortum’s Russia holdings and the Baltic gas pipelines.”
Finland destabilizing the eastern border would be one of Russia’s most essential means, Aaltola sees. This could include airspace violations and interference with satellite positioning.
Read more: GPS interference was also detected on the Finnish-Norwegian border on Wednesday, Traficom’s warning to air traffic is still valid
“Finland has also had a border scenario like Poland, when the flow of people from Belarus began there. But I don’t know what Russia would achieve with it. ”
The range of measures could also include disrupting or severing Finland’s critical maritime connection in the Baltic Sea.
“The connections to the Baltic Sea are important to Finland, which is why Russia could be a gimmick in terms of Finland’s security of supply. It could even hold a military exercise to delimit the sea areas. It could even claim to protect its gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea. ”
Similarly, Russia could make it more difficult for various goods flows to Finland, such as oil, gas and wood to enter Finland, although according to Aaltola, their availability has already deteriorated.
Aaltola sees Russia as a means of influencing information that Russia could claim to be oppressing Russians in Finland, to which Russia would then cast various threats. It could intensify the climate of fear in Finland.
Similar the atmosphere would be created by possible cyber attacks, such as cutting cables on computer networks or disabling denial-of-service attacks. One more traditional way to destabilize society, in turn, would be the leakage of various sensitive information to different parties.
“But Finnish society also knows how to react and prepare for these quite well.”
Certainly the most frightening scenario involves the most military means. According to Aaltola, Russia could start organizing large-scale military exercises right near the Finnish border and increase its military equipment in the region anyway. Russia has military bases in the area between the Kola Peninsula and St. Petersburg, although they have now been emptied to fight in Ukraine.
Read more: The losses of the Russians in the war in Ukraine are so great that it will take years to replace them – HS found out what is known about the fate of the troops normally close to Finland
“This may increase as long as Russia first survives in Ukraine. But as a threat, it would be largely in line with expectations and Russia’s military capability in Ukraine has proved to be poor. ”
However, Aaltola’s brief analysis of the situation is quite comforting.
“Russia’s capabilities are not terribly extensive. Finland has already proven to be immune to election campaigning, for example, and corruption is difficult to implement. I would not see in them any strange threat. But it is precisely this military activity at the borders that could be more frightening in Finland. ”
Also The protection police said at a news conference on Tuesday that Russia is likely to target cyber and information operations against Finland in the coming months.
Read more: Supo: Russia is likely to take action against Finland in the coming months – cyber attacks and information influence expected
“The whole of Finnish society should be prepared for various actions by which Russia wants to influence Finland’s decision-making on the NATO issue. The task of the authorities is to ensure that an open discussion can take place without fear and to ensure that outsiders cannot influence the security policy decisions made by Finland, ”said the Chief of the Security Police at the event. Antti Pelttari.
Aaltola now sees a clear change in Supo’s way of speaking.
“Supo now speaks directly. The time for allusions and riddles is finally over. It is good to do so when the world political situation is so tense and there is no return to any functioning relations with Russia. ”
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