Vox rises 1.5 points in vote estimate and the PP also improves its expectations despite the crisis
The PSOE has widened its margin of difference with respect to the PP in estimated votes to 7.7 points. The CIS barometer for March published this Thursday indicates that the socialists stand at 31.5%, up almost three points compared to February, and the popular ones, 23.8%, an increase of 2.5.
The CIS study incorporates a new system for calculating vote estimates, as the agency’s director, José Félix Tezanos, announced in Congress on Wednesday, but does not alter the order of the three main parties, which improve their electoral expectations . United We Can, Citizens and More Country, on the other hand, experience setbacks, which in the case of the purples reaches almost two points.
The field work of the barometer was carried out between March 1 and 11 in the midst of the PP crisis that ended the leadership of Pablo Casado and opened the door for Alberto Núñez Feijóo to take charge of the party from April 1 . But the internal convulsions, far from taking an electoral toll on the Popular Party, improve their horizon.
Vox’s electoral future is also more promising, according to the CIS. The far-right party has an estimate of the vote of 16.3% and exceeds for the first time the real 15% that it obtained in the last general elections of November 2019. Vox rises a point and a half compared to the February barometer, a figure that Tezanos already advanced the day before in Congress by recognizing that previous studies had not detected the hidden vote of Santiago Abascal’s party.
The new calculation methodology punishes United We Can, which falls 1.8 points and remains at an estimated vote of 11.8%, 1.2 points less than the result obtained in the last general elections. Ciudadanos also confirms its decline with 3.2%, more than half a point less than a month ago and far from the 7% it garnered in the last general elections. More Country does not escape the decline and remains at 2%, half a point less than in February.
The bloc of leftist forces, always according to the CIS, maintains its pre-eminence over that of the right with 45.3% to 43.3%.
Yolanda Diaz stands out
What improves substantially is the image of Yolanda Díaz. The vice president and leader of United We Can in the Government receives an average grade of 5.23 and passes for the first time, a bar that no political leader has exceeded in this legislature. It is striking that while the purple ones recede, her hypothetical candidate shoots up in the valuation of the citizens.
Pedro Sánchez continues in second position in social preferences with a score of 4.79. The leader of Más País, Íñigo Errejón, receives a 4.26; that of Ciudadanos, Inés Arrimadas, stays at 3.85; the popular Pablo Casado, 3.48, and Abascal, 2.97.
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