Municipalities with fewer than 10,000 inhabitants are those with the greatest absence of mayoral candidates affiliated with left-wing parties
As show the Poder360, more than half of Brazilian municipalities do not have candidates affiliated with left-wing parties running for mayor in 2024.
The situation is more acute in the group of municipalities with fewer than 10,000 inhabitants. Of the 2,466 Brazilian cities in this population range, 1,558 (or 63% of the total) do not have any mayoral candidates affiliated with a left-wing party.
“Historically, the left in Brazil has performed better in large cities. That is where its discourse can be better understood. Left-wing parties have difficulty communicating with voters in smaller cities, which are more influenced by traditional and conservative families, the church and have little organized autonomous civil society.”, says political scientist Eduardo Grin, professor at FGV-SP (Getúlio Vargas Foundation – São Paulo).
On the other hand, leftist parties are in the running in 96% of the cities with more than 200 thousand inhabitants. In the group of 103 cities that will have a second round (those with more than 200 thousand voters), only one, Parauapebas (PA), does not have a leftist party in the running.
The bet of left-wing parties on larger cities, for now, seems to be yielding little result. In the 24 capitals with recent surveys by Quaest, only John Fields (PSB) has a big advantage and could win in Recife in the first round. In the other cities, the leftist candidates are well positioned (leading or close to the leader) in São Paulo, Porto Alegre, Curitiba and Teresina.
Left does not compete in 51% of cities
When considering the whole of Brazil, 2,859 of the 5,569 cities in which there are elections in 2024 do not have a left-wing candidate.
The proportion is much higher than that of cities that do not have competitors affiliated with right-wing parties (21% of the total).
This is the lowest presence of leftist parties in municipal disputes in 20 years.
The lowest percentage recorded in the last 24 years was in the year 2000. In those elections, left-wing parties contested the mayoral elections in only 42% of municipalities.
The scenario changed after Lula became president in 2003. In the following municipal elections, the left was present in 56% of municipalities and grew until 2012, when 63% of Brazilian cities had at least one candidate affiliated with a left-wing party running in the election.
However, this number has been falling since 2016. The decline was preceded by the revelations of Operation Lava Jato and the impeachment of then-president Dilma Rousseff.
When analyzing the cause of this decline in the dispute, political scientist Eduardo Grin, professor at FGV-SP (Fundação Getúlio Vargas in São Paulo), lists some factors:
- performance clause – parties such as PC do B, PV and Rede are in danger of disappearing with the increase in minimum electoral performance requirements to receive public funds. They prioritize competitive candidacies to have mayors who can help elect more federal deputies, and thus guarantee the survival of the party;
- amendments – the increase in the distribution of federal money to cities already governed by the Centrão made the current leaders very competitive, which discourages challengers on the left;
- federal government – when he took office in 2003, Lula tried to spread the presence of left-wing parties to smaller cities. This presence declined after Lava Jato. The left regained prominence in the last two years, but in a scenario of discouragement for municipal renewal, with the current mayors strengthened.
Methodology
The classification of parties was made based on free adaptation of the article “A New Ideological Classification of Brazilian Political Parties”.
The work (full – 1 MB), by political scientists from UFPR (Federal University of Paraná) was used as a reference, with some adaptations of the report in relation to recent movements by the parties.
Read below which classifications were adopted:
- left-wing parties – PT, PSB, PDT, PCO, Psol, PSTU, PCB, PC do B, UP, Rede and PV.
- right-wing parties PP, PPB, PSDB, Brazil Union, PRB, Republicans, PSL, PL, Prona, Novo, PFL, DEM, PSC, PRTB, Patriot and PRD.
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