Datafolha and Quaest register an advantage outside the margin of error; FSB, Ipespe and PoderData have the 2 technically tied
Of the 7 last polls released, 5 indicate the possibility of the elections being resolved in the 1st round, with the victory of former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), shows a survey of the Power 360.
In 2 studies –Genial/Quaest and Datafolha– Lula wins outside the margin of error in the 1st round. Other 3 – XP/Ipespe, BTG Pactual/FSB and PowerDate– indicate a technical tie between Lula’s voting intentions and the sum of the percentages of the other pre-candidates, within the margin of error. In the surveys carried out by Paraná Pesquisas e Exame/Ideia, the distance is greater, indicating that there would be a 2nd round.
The surveys released this week (June 19 to 25, 2022) show a stable scenario. Read below the variations of the scenarios stimulated in the 1st shift:
PowerDate
Data Sheet
- Lula (PT): 47% – varied (48% in the previous survey);
- Jair Bolsonaro (PL): 28% – varied (27% in the previous survey);
- White/null/none: 7% – maintained (7% in the previous survey);
- They could not answer: 4% – maintained (4% in the previous survey).
Exam/Idea
- Lula: 45% – varied (41% in the previous survey);
- Jair Bolsonaro: 36% – varied (32% in the previous survey);
- White/null/none: 3% – varied (4% in the previous survey);
- They could not answer: 4% – varied (8% in the previous survey).
O Power 360 considered the latest surveys released by PowerDate, Quaest, FSB, Ipespe, Paraná Pesquisas, Exame/Ideia and Datafolha. In Brazil, to be elected in the 1st round, the candidate must receive at least 50% plus 1 of the valid votes. In short, the winner must have more votes than all the opponents combined (blank and null votes are not considered in this calculation).
Here are the full surveys:
In government, the scenario of a possible victory for Lula in the 1st round triggered a wave of pessimism among Bolsonaro’s allies. The vaunted hope at the beginning of the year gave way to the concern of taking the dispute to the 2nd round.
At Palácio do Planalto, a metaphor is used: Bolsonaro’s reelection candidacy is a boat adrift and it is necessary to find an island to anchor. The island, in this case, is precisely to reach the 2nd turn. Allies of the president consider that, in this case, the dispute returns to a reasonable level of equality and the scenario may change in favor of the current chief executive.
Already pressured by inflation and rising fuel prices, the government also saw its anti-corruption speech weakened by the arrest of former education minister Milton Ribeiro. The government is looking for alternatives to increase its popularity with the electorate.
Bolsonaro signed into law on Thursday (June 23, 2022) the bill that limits the ICMS (Tax on the Circulation of Goods and Services) on diesel, gasoline, electricity, communications and public transport. The sanction was published in an extra edition of the DOU (Diário Oficial da União).
The money saved will be used to increase the value of Auxílio Brasil. like the Power 360 showed, the government has given up on compensating states that have zeroed the ICMS tax rate on diesel and gas – one of the strategies initially evaluated by the government to contain prices. Now, Palácio do Planalto has decided to increase the installment of Auxílio Brasil, from R$400, to possibly R$600 per month until the end of 2022.
In the assessment of the summit, the measure of increasing aid by R$ 200 will reach voters more quickly. ICMS compensation would depend on the governors and could be muffled by possible adjustments by Petrobras.
PowerDate
Search PowerDate held from June 19 to 21, 2022, shows that former President Lula leads the electoral race with 44% of voting intentions. The distance between him and the president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) is 10 percentage points in the 1st round.
In the 2nd round, the PT increased the advantage in relation to the current head of the Executive, in relation to the last survey. Lula has 52% against 35% for Bolsonaro.
The survey was carried out by PowerDategroup company Power 360 Journalism, with its own resources. Data were collected from June 19 to 21 2022, through calls to cell phones and landlines. There were 3,000 interviews in 302 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. The margin of error is 2 percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%. The TSE registration is BR-07003/2022.
To reach 3,000 interviews that proportionally fill (as they appear in society) the groups by sex, age, income, education and geographic location, the PowerDate makes tens of thousands of phone calls. Often, there are more than 100,000 calls until the interviewees are found who faithfully represent the population as a whole. Learn more about the methodology by reading this text.
RESEARCH AGGREGATOR
O Power 360 maintains a collection with thousands of surveys with known methodologies and on which it was possible to verify the origin of the information. There have been studies carried out since the 2000 municipal elections. This is the largest and longest-running survey of electoral research available on the Brazilian internet.
The database is interactive and allows you to follow the progress of each candidate. Access by clicking here.
Research information began to be compiled by the journalist Fernando RodriguesEditor-in-Chief of Power 360on its website, in the year 2000. To access the old page with the surveys, click here.
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