Datafolha records an advantage outside the margin of error, while PoderData, Quaest and Ideia draw; FSB and Paraná indicate 2nd round
the former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) can settle this year’s elections in the 1st round, show data from 4 of the 6 main election polls released in recent weeks. In these studies, the PT has an advantage or is technically tied with the sum of the opponents.
The other 2 surveys – from FSB with the bank BTG It’s from Paraná Research with the broker BGC– indicate a chance of the dispute going to the 2nd round. For a candidate to be elected in the 1st round, it is necessary to have obtained 50% plus 1 of the valid votes (blank and null votes are not considered in this calculation).
With the enactment of the PEC on kindness, one of the focuses of Bolsonaro’s campaign should be to avoid a Lula victory in the 1st round. The project approved by Congress increases Auxílio Brasil to R$ 600, doubles the gas voucher and grants other benefits.
The billions injected into the economy and the additional ones in social programs tend to help improve the voter’s mood. But time is short. There are 79 days until the election. Emergency Aid, in 2020, took 4 months to leverage the assessment and give the president a breather.
Even if the advantage diminishes, history plays against the Bolsonaristas. Since 1988, when the possibility of a 2nd round was adopted, there has never been a turnaround in the presidential race. That is, the candidate who finished in 1st place in the 1st round always won the election and took office.
O Power 360 considered research from BTG/FSB, PowerDate, Paraná Research/BGC, Quaest / Genius, Datasheet and Exam (BTG)/Idea. Click on the texts in blue to read the full text. The studies are registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under the numbers: BR-09292/2022; BR-06550/2022; BR-09408/2022; BR-01763/2022; BR-09088/2022 and BR-02845-2022, respectively.
POWERDATA SEARCH
The study held from July 3 to 5, 2022 shows a stable scenario focused on Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (EN) and Jair Bolsonaro (PL). Today, the PT candidate has 44% of voting intentions against 36% of the current president.
The other pre-candidates add up to 11% of the voting intentions. Ciro Gomes (PDT) marks 5%; André Janones (forward) and Simone Tebet (MDB) have 3% each. Luiz Felipe d’Avila (Young), Pablo Marçal (Pros), Luciano Bivar (Brazil Union), Leonardo Pericles (UP), Eymael (A.D), Sofia Manzano (PCB) and Vera Lucia (PSTU) did not have enough mentions to score.
In a possible 2nd round between Lula and Bolsonaro, the PT has 50% against 38% for the president. The gap between the 2 is 12 percentage points.
RESEARCH AGGREGATOR
O Power 360 maintains a collection with thousands of surveys with known methodologies and on which it was possible to verify the origin of the information. There have been studies carried out since the 2000 municipal elections. This is the largest and longest-running survey of electoral research available on the Brazilian internet.
The database is interactive and allows you to follow the progress of each candidate. Access by clicking here.
Research information began to be compiled by the journalist Fernando RodriguesEditor-in-Chief of Power 360on its website, in the year 2000. To access the old page with the surveys, click here.
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