24 candidates for mayor of the country’s largest cities could be elected in the 1st round

Almost one in four of the country’s largest cities are on track to have an electoral outcome in the first round of this year’s municipal elections, scheduled to take place on October 6. According to a survey by Broadcast Político based on voting intention surveys, 24 candidates for mayor in the country’s 103 largest cities have above 50% of voting intentions and are favorites to be elected in the first round of voting.

These 103 cities are precisely those that, because they have more than 200 thousand voters, can hold a second round of voting if none of the candidates receives the majority of valid votes – a calculation that takes into account absences and blank and invalid votes. These 103 municipalities are home to 60.5 million of the 155 million Brazilian voters eligible to vote this year.

The survey for this report took into account the latest electoral polls registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Candidates with more than 50% of voting intentions were considered the favorites to win the race without needing a second round. Since the calculation of voting intentions also includes undecided voters, for example, these candidates would have even more than 50% of valid votes in these cases, giving them a more comfortable margin to be elected on October 6.

The most emblematic case is that of Dr. Furlan (MDB), current mayor of Macapá and candidate for reelection. He has 91% of voting intentions, according to a Quaest survey conducted from August 23 to 25. Furlan’s favoritism is so great that it led his opponents to withdraw from the race. Brother of Senator Davi Alcolumbre (União Brasil-AP), one of the most influential politicians in Brasília and favorite to preside over the Senate starting next year, Josiel Alcolumbre (União Brasil) put together a candidacy to try to defeat Furlan. In 2020, both went to the second round, but Alcolumbre’s brother ended up defeated. Given his opponent’s broad favoritism, Josiel gave up running for mayor and will run for city councilor.

The Broadcast Político survey also shows that the vast majority of candidates who could win in the first round are mayors seeking re-election, which indicates the power of having control over the public sector. Of the 24 candidates favored to win the dispute in the first round, 19 are already in office.

In the capitals, other mayors who, like Dr. Furlan, are seeking re-election and are favorites to win in the first round are Eduardo Paes (Rio de Janeiro), Bruno Reis (Salvador), João Campos (Recife), Eduardo Braide (São Luís), JHC (Maceió), Cicero Lucena (João Pessoa), Lorenzo Pazolini (Vitória) and Arthur Henrique (Boa Vista).

The MDB has four candidates as favorites to win the election in the first round. The PP has three candidates in this situation. PL, PT, Podemos, PSB, Republicanos and PSD have two favorite candidates to win in the first round. Novo and Avante each have one.

Below are all the cities where the dispute should be resolved in the first round, according to the most recent voting intention polls registered with the TSE:

– Rio de Janeiro (RJ): Eduardo Paes (PSD), 56% – Datafolha (August 20 and 21);

– Salvador (BA): Bruno Reis (União Brasil), 66% – Quaest (August 24 to 26);

– Recife (PE): João Campos (PSB), 76% – Datafolha (August 20 and 21);

– São Luís (MA): Eduardo Braide (PSD), 50.2% – Qualitative Institute (July 28 to 31);

– São Gonçalo (RJ): Captain Nelson (PL), 75% – Ágora Institute (August 23rd and 24th);

– Maceió (AL): JHC (PL), 65.5% – Futura/100% Cities (August 2 to 5);

– João Pessoa (PB): Cicero Lucena (PP), 53% – Quaest (August 24th to 26th);

– Sorocaba (SP): Rodrigo Manga (Republicans), 72.1% – Paraná Pesquisas (August 25 to 28);

– Contagem (MG): Marília Campos (PT), 66% – Real Time Big Data (July 27 to 29);

– Joinville (SC): Adriano Silva (Novo), 66.3% – 100% Cities (August 9 to 13);

– Campos dos Goytacazes (RJ): Wladimir Garotinho (PP), 63% – Paraná Pesquisas (August 22 to 25);

– Porto Velho (RO): Mariana Carvalho (Union Brazil), 51% – Quaest (August 24 to 26);

– Ananindeua (PA): Dr. Daniel (PSB), 59.7% – Amazzo Data (13 to 15 August)

– Vila Velha (ES): Arnaldinho Borgo (Podemos), 77% – Futura/100% Cities (August 10 to 12)

– Macapá (AP): Dr. Furlan (MDB), 91% – Quaest (23 to 25 August);

– Maringá (PR): Silvio Barros (PP), 57% – Paraná Pesquisas (August 15 to 18);

– Barueri (SP): Gil Arantes (União Brasil), 50.8% – Paraná Pesquisas (August 12 to 15);

– Cariacica (ES): Euclério Sampaio (MDB), 65% – Ipec (August 23 to 25);

– Vitória (ES): Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicans), 50.9% – Paraná Pesquisas (August 22 to 25);

– Praia Grande (SP): Alberto Mourão (MDB), 65.8% – Ipat (August 26 and 27);

– São Vicente (SP): Kaio Amado (Podemos), 75.9% – Ipat (23 and 24 August);

– Boa Vista (RR): Arthur Henrique (MDB), 62.4% – Futura/100% Cities (August 9 to 13);

– Parauapebas (PA): Aurélio Goiano (Avante), 62.4% – Gauss Institute (August 10 to 12);

– Diadema (SP): José de Filippi Jr. (PT), 50.3% – Data News Brasil (August 6 and 7).