WEF Report 2024: Global challenges as a driver of change. The risks of AI in the American elections are upon us
Misinformation and unreliable information are the main risk of our time. This is what the World Economic Forum claims in its latest Global Risks Dedicated report to 2024, interviewing 1,400 global risk experts, policy makers and industry leaders. Furthermore, 30% of participants, interviewed in September 2023, predict a high probability of global catastrophes in the next 2 years, and if we talk about the next 10 years, 2/3 of those interviewed think so. Because the rest of the problems are events extreme weather, social conflict (once called class struggle), cyber insecurity, conflicts between states, lack of economic opportunities.
Carolina Klint, commercial director for Europe at consultancy Marsh McLennan, which co-produced the report, told CNBC: “AI can build models to influence large populations of voters in a way never seen before.” Lack of social mobility, conflicts between states, radical weather events and a different relationship with the environment could become factors of construction of new economies and social trends. With the advance of new technologies, based on AI, there will be an increasingly greater need for people capable of designing and creating new paths, fueling new technologies. It should also be known that around 42% of respondents believe that the rising cost of living will still be a problem in 2024, while 33% predict an economic recession. About 25% believe that the supply chains for critical goods and resources could be disrupted, while 18% think the same for food supply chains and 14% for energy supply chains.
A skills and labor shortage is expected, according to 13% of respondents, while 14% see the public debt issue as a potential problem. Institutional collapse in the financial sector is a prediction for 7% of respondents, with the possibility of a new housing bubble and a bursting tech bubble both with 4% of the vote. Significant and profound changes that can open up new scenarios even if the general perspective remains nebulous.
It is believed that slowing economic growth and rising costs of debt will impact developing countries, with small and medium-sized companies being hit hardest. Demand uncertainty and pressures on the supply side continue to be two of the main economic issues, which could lead to renewed inflation and a delay in the easing of monetary policy, with a sovereign debt crisis also in countries such as Ethiopia, Tunisia, Egypt, Lebanon, Ghana and Pakistan. But how do we mitigate the impact of many of these global risks? In China, for example, they are imposing laws to identify, with watermarks, images and content generated by Artificial Intelligence. This could have an impact on disinformation even if the issue remains more complex than simply attributing a negative value to AI.
As well as making investments in healthcare and infrastructure, land management, such as in the case of fires and assistance with the relocation of populations. The concentration towards urban centers has changed many models of life in the world. Likewise, financial assistance and economic stimulus measures can both help address damage from natural events and impact economic situations such as rising costs of living, mortgage rates and energy prices.
For this reason, in 2024 policy makers may need to maintain a risk-return attitude when it comes to investing in research and development and supporting efforts, considering them a financial risk to take today, but with the potential for a better tomorrow. Even if we continue to live in an unstable global order, characterized by polarizing narratives and general insecurity. In a separate report on global risks for 2024 released on Monday, Eurasia Group pointed to the upcoming US elections as the main risk of the year, given the presence of “ungoverned artificial intelligence” among the top five problems.
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