The vaunted victory plan of the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyis a flight forward that requires NATO and its European allies to cross all red lines with Russia and move towards open war with Moscow. This roadmap also bet on turn Ukraine into the “guarantor of security” in Europe in the future and the armed wing of the United States in the old continent.
Zelensky has already presented his victory plan to USAwhich maintains an ominous silence about itto the Ukrainian Parliament, to NATO and this Thursday before the European Council, in Brussels, to which he asked for “unity” to advance the Ukrainian postulates, described by Russia as irrational.
It more likely that all kyiv interlocutors will delay a dangerous all-or-nothing approachwhich ignores the current situation of the conflict, with Ukraine retreating on the battle front and with other crises, such as the Middle East, that divert the attention of the allies from that war.
Force Russia to make peace… even if Ukraine is losing
As Zelensky said before participating in the European Council summit this Thursday and later in a meeting of NATO defense ministers, The intention of his plan is to “force Russia to peace”with the perspective of 2025 as the year in which to end the war.
Difficult task when The Russian army has the initiative on the battlefieldis being imposed in the east, in Donetsk, with capture after capture of towns, and when the Kremlin has launched a war economy that can allow Moscow to maintain the current conflict for several more years, something that Ukraine cannot guarantee not even with the current weapons aid from its partners.
The demands of Zelensky’s plan include Ukraine’s immediate entry into NATO as soon as the war ends and the deployment by the United States, Great Britain, France, Germany and Italy of strategic weapons in Ukraine, even if they are not nuclear.
Other points demand Western authorization and especially the United States to use long-range missiles against Russian territory.the shooting down by NATO countries of Russian drones and missiles in the Ukrainian sky, the provision of more anti-aircraft defenses and more powerful weapons to take the war to Russia and the delivery to Ukraine of intelligence information regarding Russia ” in real time”.
He also defends an agreement that allows jointly exploit Ukrainian economic potential, including natural resourcesin order to put Ukraine on the path to entry into the European Union.
Ukraine wants to replace the US as guarantor of peace
But the most disturbing of the sections of the victory plan It is committed to Ukraine assuming after the war the role of “guarantor of European security” currently played by the United States, including the replacement by Ukrainian troops of the troops that Washington currently has deployed in Europe.
With a certain megalomaniac touch, the victory plan Zelensky insists that Ukraine has the potential to be a great military power and is essential to guarantee European and global security. That is, there would be Ukrainian soldiers armed to the teeth distributed throughout Europe, where there are American bases today.
According to Zelensky, There are three other “secret requests” in the plan that have only been revealed to the United States. and other “close” allies.
Many of these conditions had already been classified by Russia since it invaded Ukraine in February 2022 as sufficient reasons for a direct confrontation with NATOif its members adopted them. The rapid progress towards kyiv’s accession to the Alliance was one of the reasons given by Moscow to justify the invasion.
The Kremlin demands that Ukraine maintain a neutrality that neither Ukrainians nor most European countries accept. or the US, original promoter already in 2007 of the entry of Ukraine and the Transcaucasian Republic of Georgia into NATO, although in recent times it has moderated that speech considered as casus belli by Moscow.
Russia: Zelensky is not in his right mind
About him victory planthe Kremlin noted that Zelensky, to achieve peace with Russia, must first “come to his senses.” Moscow described as “illusory” what it called “a plan for Ukraine’s misfortune” and stressed that it would lead to a no-return escalation between Moscow and NATO.
The Hungarian Prime Minister expressed himself along the same lines, Víktor Orbán, for whom the Ukrainian president’s plan is “more than terrifying”. The Hungarian ultranationalist leader urged the European Union to change “its war strategy for a peace strategy”, regarding the Ukraine conflict.
This Thursday, the Secretary General of NATO, Mark Ruttegave Zelensky pause on this demand to incorporate Ukraine into the Alliance immediately at the end of the conflict. Although he said that kyiv will be a member of NATO “in the future,” he noted that at this time it cannot be known when that integration will occur.
Even Zelensky himself acknowledged after attending the European Council that Ukraine’s incorporation into the Atlantic Alliance “is a sensitive issue in the United States”because he fears that “it could drag Washington into the war and there are certain red lines when it comes to inviting Ukraine.”
NATO does not support the Zelensky Plan
Rutte himself already indicated on Wednesday, when Zelensky publicly revealed his Victory Plan before the Rada of the Ukrainian Parliament, that he did not agree with some of its points and that, although he supported Kiev in its fight against Russia, he did not I could support them.
“That would be a bit difficult because there are many issues, of course, that we have to understand better,” Rutte said at a press conference prior to the meeting of NATO defense ministers taking place this Thursday and Friday in Brussels.
The White House does not agree either. During Zelensky’s visit to the United States in September, he presented the plan to President Joe Biden. However, he did not get Washington’s permission for Ukraine to use long-range missiles donated by the Pentagon to attack targets in the heart of Russia. The US wants to avoid an escalation of tension with the Kremlin that could end in a direct clash.
About the “joint defense” that Zelensky wants to shoot down Russian missiles and drones with the anti-aircraft systems of Poland or Romania while they fly over the Ukrainian sky, and the previous secretary general of NATO, Jens Stoltenbergwho handed over to Rutte on October 1, said there was no way the Alliance wanted to become a direct party to the conflict.
Zelensky wants results against the clock, before 2025
This victory planAs Zelensky himself has insisted, aims to twist Russia’s arm on the battlefield (or at least scare her enough) to force the Kremlin to negotiate and openly acknowledge its defeat in an international peace summit that the Ukrainian president wants to be held in the coming months, in any case before 2025, which is when Zelensky wants to have ended the war.
After the one held in Switzerland last June, at this next peace summit (Zelensky already spoke of November as a possible date), the Ukrainian head of state intends for attendees to support his post-war conditions, that is, the complete Russian withdrawal from the occupied territories in Ukraine, including the Crimean peninsula annexed in 2014the payment of war compensations and even the prosecution of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who ordered the invasion on February 24, 2022.
He victory plan does not specify how Ukraine, which is losing the fight, as even its own allies are beginning to recognizecan subdue the army of a world superpower equipped with nuclear weapons. Weapons that the Kremlin has already indicated that it would use if things get very bad for Moscow.
Except, of course, that NATO enters directly into the fray (with nuclear potential included), which is what Zelensky has been demanding for a long time, actively and passively..
But andso it’s not going to happen. The current level of military and weapons support for Ukraine will not even be maintained in the coming months. The Middle East crisis, with the Israeli invasion of Gaza and Lebanon, and the threat of an Iranian clash against Israel and its American bodyguards have changed everything. The very high risk of a large-scale war in this region can relegate the Russian-Ukrainian crisis as a simple post-Soviet conflict.
Western weapons, yes. Iranians and North Koreans, no.
The postulate that Zelensky defended this Thursday before the European leaders is that A world war is already underway, due to the participation of Iran and North Korea in the conflict in Ukrainewith weapons, such as drones and missiles, and even with soldiers, as is the case of the Kim Jong-un regime, according to the Ukrainian leader.
Zelensky repeated again, in a press conference after his meeting with European leaders, that There are already North Korean troops fighting in Ukraine and? Pyongyang prepares to send 10,000 of its soldiers to support Russia.
And in the case of Iran, “it gives [a Rusia] drones and missiles, but not people. And here we see how this is the first step towards a world war,” Zelensky added.
Neither the United States nor NATO have corroborated the presence of North Korean soldiers in Ukraine fighting alongside Russian troops.
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