There seems to be no end to the Ukraine war in sight. But there is hope for diplomacy. Zelensky could deviate from some conditions.
Washington/Kyiv – For weeks, the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced his so-called victory plan for the Ukrainian war. Details should be discussed at the Ukraine summit in Ramstein. But after Joe Biden canceled due to Hurricane Milton, the meeting was postponed. Meanwhile, the Russian war of aggression continues, and losses are said to be heavy on both sides.
After Russia’s spring offensive failed, Zelensky wanted to turn the tide in the war with his own offensive. But this plan also failed. In recent months, Kiev has continued to insist on its absolute demands for an end to the Ukraine war. Now things seem to be moving. According to the news agency, several sources from the NATO environment report Bloombergthat Zelensky is becoming “more flexible” when it comes to concessions that could end the Ukraine war. Details are not yet known.
No end to the Ukraine war so far: But Zelenskyj is probably becoming “more flexible”
The Ukraine war has been raging since February 24, 2022. With a large number of personnel and high losses, Russia repeatedly makes advances into eastern Ukraine. But the defenders have also launched a counterattack in recent months with their Kursk offensive Vladimir Putin. The situation in the Ukraine war is still considered highly dynamic: In its daily analyses, the Institute for the Study of War regularly reports on heavy fighting and new territorial gains.
In view of these developments, an end to the Ukraine war still seems a long way off. But as Bloomberg now reports, the conditions for negotiations could now be better. Zelensky seems increasingly willing to make territorial concessions to Russia and reconsider Ukraine’s NATO membership. This would be a radical departure from Kiev’s previous position in the Ukraine war. The longer the Russian war of aggression lasts, the more likely it is that there will be a departure from the current line, it goes on to say.
Conditions for the end of the Ukraine war: Zelensky is actually planning to win against Russia
Until now, Zelensky had repeatedly publicly emphasized that an end to the Ukraine war would only be possible if Russia’s armed forces completely withdrew from the occupied territories. In addition, the Ukrainian president repeatedly insisted on one NATO-membership of his country. But in view of the coming winter months, this attitude appears to be softening. Bloomberg writes that Ukrainian politicians have signaled they are willing to acknowledge the possibility of other conditions for ending the Ukraine war.
Zelensky’s much-touted victory plan for the Ukrainian war originally envisaged forcing an end to the Ukrainian war on Ukrainian terms thanks to Western support. Details should be discussed on Saturday in Ramstein. So far, Zelensky has not been able to fully convince his allies of his plan.
Zelenskyj probably deviates from the victory plan: new conditions for the end of the Ukraine war are possible
As the Bloomberg report shows, an alternative could be emerging, particularly with regard to NATO membership. Accordingly, the USA could instead give Kyiv extensive security guarantees. While there are currently no signs of negotiations to end the Ukraine war, US officials are said to have asked the government in Kiev to outline what it will take to maintain pressure on Russian forces in the fight against Vladimir Putin next year .
Looking ahead to the coming winter months, Kiev’s prospects for further successes in the Ukraine war appear to be slim. Forbes writes that Russia is steadily gaining ground in the East, destroying Ukrainian settlements and killing civilians, while the Ukrainian army remains outgunned and overwhelmed. Should a ceasefire nevertheless occur in the coming period, the Kremlin could exploit the situation for its own interests.
Situation in the Ukraine war uncertain: no end in sight – pressure on Zelenskyj is growing
The Forbes report suggests that a quick end to the Ukraine war and easy peace in the region is an illusion. Even in the event that Ukraine strives to continue joining NATO, Russia seems to be prepared and able to play for time: According to treaty law, NATO does not accept new members that are in the middle of a conflict or even in a frozen conflict. If there were a ceasefire in the Ukraine war, it would only benefit Kiev to a limited extent. In addition, future support for Ukraine from Western partners is becoming increasingly uncertain.
Selenskyj knows this too – which is probably why he recently pushed his victory plan so hard. About should Donald Trump the coming one US election win, the Republican candidate has already announced that he wants to end the Ukraine war quickly – and not necessarily on Kiev’s terms. European countries already see a threat to future US aid to Ukraine. For Europe, budgetary constraints are also increasing the pressure on aid to Ukraine. A possible departure by Zelensky from his original conditions could therefore become essential in view of the challenges of the coming months. (fbu)
#Zelensky #Putin #deal #Ukraine #war