Last Friday we met the economic growth data of the euro zone and the member countries and, as is already happening in the last quarters, there is a great divergence between the behavior of the countries of the north and southern Europe. In that last quarter of the year, while Spain grew at an year -on -year rate of 3.2%and Portugal did it to 2.5%, Germany was still in negative rates, France advanced 0.9%, although it receded a tenth at an intertrimestral rate . Undoubtedly, we see a Europe growing at two speeds, in which the countries that were once part of the classes ‘Pigs’ (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) are now pulling the European economy. Without doubt for Spain it is Good news to be on this occasion in the head group of European growth, but the situation, as happened in the years prior to the outbreak of the real estate bubble, is not exempt from risks. The monetary policy then, as now, will adapt to the weak situation of Germany and France, and the types will continue to fall, probably to be 2%, or even in 1.5% according to some analysts, if Trump fulfills their threats and imposes tariffs on European products. This relaxed monetary policy, which will undoubtedly help Germany and France, and even Italy to reactivate its economy, in Spain and Portugal can cause a new debt bubble. It is true that families and companies have margin to borrow after the strong defaluation they have been carrying out for three decades. However, the public sector situation is much more worrying. Brussels raised his hand, and abolished fiscal rules during the COVID to apply measures that help workers, autonomous and companies. Then he raised his hand to apply anti -crisis measures. And when in theory we are returning to the path of fiscal rigor, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, advanced on Friday that will propose re -applying exhaust clauses of fiscal rigor to increase investment in defense, as Donald Trump asks for Trump . Probably a successful measure for Europe to take its own defense seriously and stop depending on the US president on duty. But it is dangerous that in some countries this is taken as wide manga, because in the end, indebtedness is allowed or not the truth is that debt is generated and before or after it must be paid. In the real estate sector, although we are facing record prices, it seems that it is not yet about a real estate bubble like the one that exploded in 2008. Then 600,000 homes were built every year and yet, prices did not stop going up. The low interest rates, the high economic growth and the laxity of the financial entities, especially the boxes, when granting loans for up to 100% of the value of the houses caused the perfect cocktail. The housing problem seems today seems OFFER. As soon as 100,000 are built for more than 200,000 new homes per year, so it seems normal for prices to rise to that demand pressure. Anyway, we must be careful. Citizens cannot be trusted by the low types to borrow over what we can pay in the future before another scenario, and administrations must also be careful and take advantage of the growth and extra income it entails to square the accounts and save when when Skinny cows come. But I don’t see politicians very for the work.
#Yolanda #Gómez #Rojo #Bubble #risk
