The war, explains a member of the China Communications and Transportation Association, has caused “great uncertainty” for European customers. The new line would therefore be a valuable alternative, all on tracks
The spite of the Chinese friend, a railway line that brings goods to Europe bypassing Russia. At the summit in Uzbekistan, the meeting between Xi Jinping and Putin was in the foreground, a test of their “cooperation without limits”. The tsar didn’t get much: no public support for his “special military operation” in Ukraine. True, China continues to buy oil and gas while saving Russia from Western sanctions – and new transportation facilities are planned. But at the Uzbek summit, a little quietly, the agreement for a trade route on tracks was also signed. This from China to Europe, with Russia cut off. The current link – which passes through Kazakhstan and Russia – carries the vast majority of China’s rail trade with Europe, which grew from $ 8 billion in 2016 to around $ 75 billion in 2021. The new line has a major first advantage: it is shorter than 900 kilometers. But the second is the most important: avoid Russia, where because of sanctions it is more difficult to move goods.
These are the stages of the new path: Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, then Turkmenistan, Iran and Turkey. It serves China to expand its influence and diversify its direct lines to Europe; and the nations of Central Asia gain: more connections, between them and to China.
In reality the project is not new, we have been talking about it for several years without doing anything really concrete. The turning point, it seems, was the war in Ukraine. The war, explains a member of the China Communications and Transportation Association, has caused “great uncertainty” for European customers. Slower and more expensive rail and sea routes were used to get around Russia. The new line would therefore be a valuable alternative, all on tracks – also because the sanctions are likely to last a long time. Xi Jinping supports the project, which Russia has never loved. In any case, Putin’s green light was added in July.
In May, the first signs that something was moving. The announcement by Sadyr Japarov, president of Kyrgyzstan, that construction of a line to connect China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan would begin in 2023. 280 kilometers with a cost of about 4 billion euros, which will guarantee the two Stan jobs, taxes on the transit of goods, and “new economic opportunities”, said the president of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev.
There are also a lot of question marks. Foreign experts and diplomats say there have been too many false starts in the past, and that Putin is unreliable. It should also be remembered that China’s foreign investments are now in a stalemate: 2022 down compared to the previous year, and several countries are struggling to repay the debts accumulated for large infrastructures. One of these looks like Kyrgyzstan: it is politically unstable and owes a lot of money to the Chinese.
Yet this could be the right time. The key to success, the Economist speculates, is to depend a little less on China, finding different sources of funding. The greatest project impetus then seems to come from Uzbekistan, whose president (who replaced a despot of the Soviet era) has gained the favor of international development agencies and Western governments over the years.
However, China is decisive. Yesterday in the Global Times, the government newspaper, there was talk of the opening of this new “southern corridor” to Europe, underlining its strategic usefulness “in the light of the conflict in Ukraine and growing global geopolitical tensions”. In short, a step forward to make the region more connected to the rest of the world and less dependent on Russia. This, however, the Global Times does not say.
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