The moment of truth is approaching. Who between Sébastien Ogier and Elfyn Evans will be the 2021 WRC World Champion? The title, which will certainly end up in the hands of one of the two Toyota drivers, could be awarded as early as this weekend, at the Rally de Catalunya.
After the great success obtained at the Rally of Finland, Elfyn Evans has re-launched in the general classification, going from 44 points behind Sébastien Ogier to the current 24. The Welshman has collected the maximum possible, 30 points, while Ogier has forfeited 10.
Now, 2 rallies from the end of the 2021 season, the time has come to come to terms with and understand how Sébastien Ogier can win his eighth career title already in Catalonia. The Frenchman is in fact the only one to be able to go out this weekend.
Elfyn Evans, in the best of cases, could arrive at the ACI Rally Monza Italia – the last round of the WRC – with a 6-point advantage over Ogier. This solution will occur if Evans wins the rally and the power stage, while Ogier is forced to retire, without taking additional points in the Power Stage.
Ogier, on the other hand, has multiple chances of winning the title already in Catalonia. Let’s start from the fact that, having a 24-point advantage with 2 rallies to run, if he managed to score 6 points more than Evans he would mathematically be eight times world champion. With a 30-point lead over Evans, the games will be over and done with.
Hypothetically, Ogier might just need to finish in tenth place and win the Power Stage if Evans fails to finish the race. Likewise, finishing ninth and second in the Power Stage, eighth and fourth in the Power Stage or seventh overall, without taking any points in the Power Stage.
What Evans will have to do to keep the games open
If, on the other hand, both Ogier and Evans were to be close to the end of the race, things would change. If Ogier wins the race, Evans should at least finish third and win the Power Stage, but also hope that Ogier can’t finish the Power Stage in the Top 5.
Should Ogier finish the race in second place, Evans will not be able to do worse than the sixth place finish and the victory of the Power Stage. Should Ogier finish in second place and win the Power Stage, Evans will not be able to do worse than third overall and take second place on the Power Stage.
In short, to win the eighth world champion at the Rally of Catalonia, Ogier will have to aim for one of these 2 numbers: 30, that is the maximum score guaranteed by the event, or 6, that is the extra points to be done to graduate once more. once world champion. Probably, for the last time in his career.
Toyota’s possibilities for the Builders
In this case, the chances of winning the Constructors’ championship in Catalonia will be quite high for the Japanese manufacturer. For Toyota Racing it will be enough to win the event and place the second Yaris WRC Plus in the Top 6. At that point Hyundai Motorsport could no longer reach it even by making the maximum points at the ACI Rally Monza Italia.
A scenario that is not obvious, but plausible, considering the great qualities of Sébastien Ogier – also – on asphalt and the good propensity shown on that surface by Evans and a rapidly growing Kalle Rovanpera. Hyundai, however, will be able to count on great asphalters such as Thierry Neuville – winner of the event in 2019 – and the host Dani Sordo. The fight is still open. It will be a weekend for strong hearts.