World 2023 | Analysis: Putin is losing his grip on the Middle East

The attack on Ukraine weakens Russia’s influence in the Middle East, writes The Economist’s Middle East correspondent Gregg Carlstrom.

Yet year then Vladimir Putin was on the rise in the Middle East. Russia and Egypt organized a joint naval exercise in the Mediterranean in December 2019 and promised more cooperation. Mubadala, Abu Dhabi’s main sovereign wealth fund, made its biggest investment in Russia when it bought a 1.9 percent stake in Sibur, a huge petrochemical firm. Leader of the Wagner mercenary group Yevgeny Prigozhin made public statements about the outcome of the upcoming elections in Libya.

A year later, Russia’s military forces have frozen in place. Mubadala has frozen its investment. Prigozhin drags prisoners to the front line in Ukraine and does not have time to analyze the politics of Libya.

The countries of the Persian Gulf are hesitating about their investments.

Attack Ukraine has reduced Russia’s role in the Middle East. Its position will further weaken in 2023.

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Economic relations, which were never very close, suffered first. Even before the Russian invasion, Saudi Arabia’s imports from Russia were half of what it imported from the Netherlands, whose economy is smaller and whose population is one-ninth that of Russia.

Russia, which is at war, has even less to offer. The countries of the Persian Gulf are hesitating about their investments. Egypt used to be popular with Russian sun worshippers, but now has to look for new tourists.

Ironically, the hydrocarbon market is one of the few growth sectors. The EU bans Russian oil and oil products, but there are buyers for them in the Middle East. Companies in the area buy the products at a discount either for their own use or to resell them abroad at the market price with the help of a new certificate of origin.

Russia has no weapons for sale.

Russia is the region’s second largest arms exporter after the United States, but the war is hampering its business. The poor success of Russian weapons in Ukraine did not bother Arab buyers, because the charm of its equipment was never the quality, but the fact that Russia did not impose conditions on the deals.

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The problem is that Russia has no weapons for sale. Sanctions are crippling its war machine. It needs all the weapons it produces in Ukraine. The Arab armies must turn to the United States, or China and Turkey.

The countries of the Persian Gulf are still on good terms with Russia, but do not expect to gain much from the relationship. Like Russia, Saudi Arabia also wants to keep oil prices high and the OPEC+ agreement unchanged. The UAE continues to negotiate with Putin while welcoming rich emigrants fleeing his policies with open arms.

Erdoğan also seeks to benefit from a weak Russia.

Relations To Iran are complicated. The trade is growing, especially as the Russian military has to turn to Iran to replenish its stockpiles of aircraft and equipment. However, both have to sell illegal oil below market prices. The resulting price war could be painful for Iran.

If the Arab countries do not want to depend on an indifferent United States, they will invest more in relations with China.

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President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdoğan also seeks to benefit from a weak Russia.

Turkey and Russia support opposing sides in Libya, and Erdoğan can pursue dialogue. In Syria, he may reopen relations Bashar al-Assad to the administration. Both Turkey and Russia want to prevent Iran from filling the vacuum left by Russia.

Published in The Economist’s World 2023 magazine (The World Ahead). HS subscribers can read the entire magazine for free from here. Translation by InPress. ©2022 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved.

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