World politics Would a NATO application put Finland in even greater danger? “You’re in that situation right now,” says the American diplomat

President Sauli Niinistö meets with the President of the United States Joe Biden on Friday in Washington. Its hottest question is without a doubt this:

Are the presidents talking about the Finnish NATO option?

The Office of the President of the Republic announced the meeting on Thursday. According to the press release, Niinistö and Biden will discuss Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the effects of the war on the European security order and bilateral co-operation between Finland and the United States.

It was not announced on Thursday whether the Finnish NATO option or its exercise will be discussed at the meeting.

Nor do I want to go directly to the US Chargé d’Affaires of Finland at the US Embassy to evaluate it. Ian Campbell In an interview with HS.

Campbell will serve as head of the embassy and represent the United States in Finland until the country’s new ambassador is likely to take office in late March.

“I don’t want to predict the content of the discussions. It is up to the heads of state to decide what they will discuss. Will NATO emerge there? I can’t say, and I’m not hearing it, ”Campbell says.

However, according to him, it is clear that the discussions will deal not only with the European security order and bilateral co-operation between Finland and the United States, but also with the security situation in Finland.

“As we know, NATO and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are strongly interlinked. The matter may arise on Friday. After all, the NATO option is part of Finland’s wider security debate, ”says Campbell.

“The meeting will also give Joe Biden the opportunity to hear President Niinistö’s views on what is currently happening in the relationship between Russia and Finland.”

Finland The NATO debate took another step on Monday when Yle released surveyaccording to which the majority, ie 53 per cent of Finns, support Finland ‘s accession to the military alliance.

But what if Finland really decided to join NATO? How would Russia react?

United States Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield gave a speech at the UN plenary session on Wednesday that sounded rather threatening from Finland’s point of view.

“President [Vladimir] Putin continue to accelerate the situation by placing nuclear forces on standby and threatening to attack Finland and Sweden [to invade Finland and Sweden]”Thomas-Greenfield said in his speech.

By threatening to attack Finland and Sweden? Similar interpretations of Russia’s or Putin’s statements have not been seen in the Finnish security policy debate.

Something A similar discussion in Finland was sparked by a spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry Marija Zaharovan last Friday’s statement, in which he emphasized the “military-political” consequences of Finland’s accession to NATO.

“It is clear that the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, which is, as you well understand, a military alliance, would have serious military-political consequences that would require retaliation from our country,” Zaharova told a news conference at the Foreign Ministry.

However, the Russian Foreign Ministry has also communicated Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership in the same tone. previously. For example, President Niinistö has noted that Zaharova’s comments did not deviate much from Russia’s previous statements.

Is there a difference of opinion in the United States? Is it based on some information that has not been discussed in public in Finland?

According to Campbell, Thomas-Greenfield’s statement is based entirely on the threats publicly expressed by Russia.

“When Zaharova said that Finland’s accession to NATO would have serious military-political consequences, it has been a consistent line of the Russian Foreign Ministry,” Campbell said. He refers to Putin and the country’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrovin to previous ones statementswhich called, inter alia, for a halt to NATO’s eastward enlargement.

According to him, Zaharova’s message, also issued by the Russian Foreign Ministry played on their Twitter accountwas “as clear as it can be”.

“You can make your own interpretation of whether such action respects your country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Campbell says.

“They are not messages from a friendly state.”

Thehow Russia would react if Finland applied for NATO membership, Campbell himself did not want to start evaluating.

“It would be hoped that any country that sees security concerns in Finland’s operations would express it through diplomatic means,” he says.

“However, your neighbor in the East has recently proved several times that it cannot be trusted when it comes to its diplomatic efforts. So what would Russia do? I do not know. But what Russia would say it would certainly be different from what Russia would actually do, ”Campbell says.

He refers to Putin’s pre-invasion of Ukraine’s assurances that no attack is coming.

However, he does not see that Finland’s application for NATO membership would significantly change the current situation.

“You are already in that situation. You are no more vulnerable to Russia’s risk appetite than you are already. ”

However, he does not see an acute risk to Finland’s security situation. According to Campbell, this is due not only to Finland’s EU membership but also to Finland’s strong ability to defend its own borders. According to him, Finland’s resistance during the Winter and Continuation Wars is remembered in Moscow.

“‘The last time we tried to attack Finland, Finland was not very easy to defeat’ – that’s how I think people think.”

Campbellin According to the United States, there is no opinion on whether Finland should apply for NATO or not.

“Mixed [Naton pääsihteeri Jens] Stoltenberg that we have been very clear that the NATO open door principle is not a matter for negotiation. Those doors are always open to Finland. Whether Finland wants to join is Finland’s own solution. The offer is and will remain on the table as long as NATO and Finland are on it. ”

However, he says directly that security guarantees are only for NATO members. However, that does not mean that a country outside NATO will not receive support from the United States in the face of an attack.

“Of course, Finland is not the same thing as Ukraine, but one can look at the situation in Ukraine and the help that Ukraine has received from countries around the world,” he says.

“Regardless of NATO membership, if the country is attacked, it will be responded to. We have to react to that. ”

However, the borders of a NATO member state would be defended by the United States rather than its own borders.

“If Russia decides to make a catastrophic misjudgment and steps on its feet across the border of a NATO member state, an attack on one is an attack on all. And then Russia will face all of NATO, ”he says.

“I can promise that that would be something we are prepared for and that NATO is constantly practicing. That is why we have NATO. ”