Floods can decide elections. Now, of all times, a water roller is rolling towards Brandenburg. Will the AfD use this against incumbent Woidke?
Potsdam – Gerhard Schröder (SPD) trudged through the flooded Elbe region in rubber boots. Armin Laschet (CDU) was carried away by a laugh in front of the cameras in the Ahr Valley, while homeowners fought desperately for their belongings. One, Schröder, narrowly won the election in 2022. The other, Laschet, lost by a landslide in 2021. At that point, it became clear: Flood situations can influence elections. That is why anxious glances are now turning to Brandenburg.
On Sunday (22 September) the state will elect a new state parliament. And just a few days before the Brandenburg election, the water levels in the rivers continue to rise dramatically. After the waters in Poland and Austria overflowed their banks after days of continuous rain, a water roller is now rolling towards Saxony and Brandenburg.
Floods threaten Brandenburg election: SPD hopes for turnaround
As a precaution, the SPD is already calling for the issue to be excluded from the election campaign for the Brandenburg election. “In such situations, it is important to avert damage to the state and its population and not to engage in election campaign maneuvers,” said Brandenburg’s Bundestag member Hannes Walter to IPPEN.MEDIAIn recent years, the state government has invested a lot of money in flood protection around the Oder, Neisse and Elbe, he added, warning against panic-mongering.
Brandenburg election 2024: Polls predict close result between SPD and AfD
Nevertheless, shortly before the Brandenburg election in 2024, there is an atmosphere of alarm. Because, as in the past, the floods may actually be a decisive factor in the election outcome. Surveys SPD and AfD a close race. With 28 percent, the right-wing populists are three percentage points ahead of the governing SPD of Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke. The incumbent had recently caught up in the mood and tied the state election to his personal future. He has repeatedly made it clear that he only wants to continue to govern if he is ultimately the strongest force.
“Hour of the Executive”: Can Woidke still catch up in the polls?
But can he still turn the outcome of the Brandenburg election? And will mastering the flood situation perhaps help him to do so? Some opinion researchers do not rule this out. “When natural disasters occur, the hour of the executive has come,” says Stefan Merz, Senior Director at Infratest dimap, when asked by IPPEN.MEDIAWith decisive crisis management and empathy for those affected, those in power could certainly score points with voters.
Schröder or Platzeck in the flood: prominent examples of opportunities in the election campaign
In addition to Gerhard Schröder, the pollster also names Matthias Platzeck as a prominent example of this effect. The SPD politician earned the nickname “Dikemaster” in 1997 as Brandenburg’s Minister for the Environment during the Oder floods due to his constant commitment. In doing so, Platzeck laid the foundation for his subsequent political career as the later Mayor of Potsdam and Minister-President of Brandenburg.
“In this respect, the looming flood situation is certainly an opportunity for Dietmar Woidke to further increase his approval ratings,” says Merz. But the fact that this will succeed is not a law of nature. “Political capital can also easily be squandered through clumsy behavior and action in a crisis, as was recently clearly seen with Armin Laschet in the 2021 federal election campaign. In this respect, it remains to be seen what impact the flood will have on the state election in Brandenburg on Sunday,” says the pollster.
Floods before state elections in Brandenburg: AfD accuses Woidke of some failures
In Brandenburg, there is currently no reason to give the all-clear ahead of the state election. That is why all election campaigners are trying to get the right interpretation a few days before the election. “We hope for the best, but prepare for the worst,” Woidke said on IPPEN.MEDIA-Request through his spokesman. At the same time, the state government referred to the improved flood protection, which has been continuously expanded since 1997. Higher and additional dikes are a “good foundation” against another flood disaster, it said.
But the political opponents see things differently. RBBIn the TV show “Derkandidatenscheck”, AfD parliamentary group leader and top candidate Hans-Christoph Berndt accused the state government of some shortcomings. Despite the expansion of the dikes, they had not tackled all the challenges consistently enough. The spread of beavers and nutrias had left holes in the dikes in many places, he claimed, and called for the animals to be hunted consistently.
In case of flooding: Voting in the Brandenburg election still possible
Voters will decide on Sunday who is right. Despite the threat of flooding, the Brandenburg election is to take place as planned. The state government has already made provisions for this. Voting should be possible even in the event of a disaster. The office of the Brandenburg state election officer said that the situation is being monitored very closely. IPPEN.MEDIA If a polling station cannot be used due to flooding, the nearest polling station would be an emergency polling station. (jkf)
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