After four months of straight gains, the Ibovespa starts July in a lower tone, starting to put in the price a factor that, in benefit of the improvement in economic indicators, had been left aside since the installation of Covid’s CPI: the accentuation of political risk . With Brasília effervescing around the new impeachment request of President Jair Bolsonaro, and conflagrations in the Senate in which it is intended to investigate misconduct and now also resources, the B3 index continues to move away from the resistance of 131,000 points, corresponding to the recent historical high of June 7th.
This Thursday, in third consecutive loss, closed down 0.90%, at 125,666.19 points, the lowest level since May 28 (125,561.37 points), extending the correction started last Friday, when the market reacted poorly to the proposal for taxation of dividends and other tax innovations proposed by the government. At the low of this Thursday, the Ibovespa lost the line of 125 thousand points, at 124,993.64, also at the lowest intraday level since May 28 (124,284.00 points).
With aversion to political risk, the session was linearly negative for the sectors with the greatest weight in the index, such as commodities (Petrobras ON -1.75%, Vale ON -1.74%) and banks (Bradesco PN -1.24%, BB ON -1.06%). The financial turnover was R$ 32.0 billion and, in the week, the index now accumulates a loss of 1.25% – in the year, it still advances 5.59%.
“Some foreign funds are taking the opportunity to make profits, which explains part of the fall seen today on the Stock Exchange with the political risk seen in the CPI, involving the purchase of vaccines and the government’s participation in it. The market remains cautious, which favors this achievement, also with the rise of the dollar”, says Virgílio Lage, a specialist at Valor Investimentos.
This Thursday, after a sequence of sessions below R$ 5, which took it to R$ 4.89 at the best moment, the US currency once again firmed itself above that psychological line, ending the day at a high of 1.45%, at R$ 5.0453, having reached R$ 5.0513 at the maximum.
“Institutional investors seem to be starting to call attention to political risk and, at this stage of noise, they are not paying to see it”, says Flávio Aragão, a partner at 051 Capital, drawing special attention to the opening of the interest curve, with longs slant, in addition to pressure on the dollar, with increased volatility in the exchange rate observed in recent sessions. “Since it is a very professionalized market – different from the stock exchange, where the individual, the retail investor has weight –, when interest rates start to get stressed, it is necessary to turn on the alert”, observes Aragão.
“When it started, the CPI didn’t seem to worry, so the market had been ignoring it, even when the external scenario wasn’t so comfortable. Now, the global is moving, and we are not following it”, he adds – this Thursday, the S&P 500 renewed its historic closing high.
Aragão considers that data on industrial production for May, on Friday, may bring some relief, as the month so far has been positive for economic activity, according to the indicators already released. “Towards the end of July, a new swing season begins, which helps, if all goes well, to take the focus off the political,” he concludes.
With President Bolsonaro’s new impeachment request, since Wednesday, uniting opposition and former allies, the perception is that the key to the government is closing in the hands of the Centrão, in particular the president of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP-AL) , which for the time being does not see “materiality” to carry out the requests for impediment.
Rosa Weber, minister of the Federal Supreme Court, forwarded to the Attorney General’s Office (PGR) a request for an investigation by President Bolsonaro and former director of Logistics at the Ministry of Health, Roberto Dias, regarding the alleged request for bribery, denounced last week by the Miranda brothers at Covid’s CPI. “The order was announced at 11:00 am, precisely the time when the Ibovespa began a more intense correction process and plunged from 126,300 points to 125 thousand points”, says Rafael Ribeiro, an analyst at Clear Corretora, highlighting, in the very short term, correction of the index having as “first target the range of 125,000 points and the main one, in the last top broken at 122,000 points”.
On the negative end of the Ibovespa on Thursday, highlights were sectors with exposure to the domestic economy, such as commerce and services, with Locaweb down 3.51%, Lojas Renner, 3.17%, Totvs, 3, 16%, and Multiplan, 3.11%. On the opposite side, BR Distribuidora (+7.20%), PetroRio (+5.39%), Rumo (+3.13%) and WEG (+1.66%).
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