SUMMARY
• Outperforming other domestic asset classes, these funds have stood out for their high resilience and good profitability
• Funds with these assets indexed to the CDI only lose out in return to those with global portfolios
The market for incentivized debentures has gained prominence in 2024, driven by Eletrobras’ decision to launch R$1.63 billion in incentivized debentures with a ten-year term. This movement has heated up the sector and put these funds in the spotlight due to their resilience and profitability, which surpass several other domestic asset classes.
According to one XP reportdebenture funds indexed to the CDI position themselves in second place in terms of return, behind only global funds that benefited from the appreciation of the dollar. This scenario has aroused the interest of investors and managers, who see in incentivized debentures a solid alternative amid market volatility.
Analysts point to a series of factors that drive the appreciation of incentivized debentures, including regulatory changes and favorable market conditions. Laurence Mello, CIO of Alternative Funds and Credit at AZ Questhighlights that the growing demand for tax-exempt assets has contributed to the good performance.
The recent changes to resolution 5.118 of the National Monetary Council (CMN)which modified the rules for issuing CRIs, CRAs, LCIs and LCAs, also resulted in an increase in demand for the incentivized debentures, increasing the price of these securities.
Already Rodrigo Wainberg, analyst at Suno and responsible for the SNID11 fundnotes that the poor performance of variable income assets in 2024 — with the Ibovespa stable and a drop of more than 11% in small caps — caused investors to seek refuge in fixed income assets indexed to the CDI. With the prospect of an increase in the Selic rate to 11.25% per year, incentivized debenture funds became even more evident.
Incentivized debenture funds linked to the CDI, which offer a natural “hedge” against market volatility, have been the most profitable in 2024.
Rafael Ohmachi, partner and head of liquid funds at RB Assetassesses that these funds, when changing the index, are less impacted by fluctuations in the interest curve, especially in periods of instability.
While funds indexed to the IPCA suffered with the opening of the interest curve, funds linked to the CDI managed to maintain their performance. Still, Wainberg points out that Inflation-linked funds continue to show a positive carry effectwhich helps to compensate for market fluctuations.
THE active management has been identified as one of the crucial elements for the success of debenture funds. Ohmachi reinforces that, in an environment of uncertain interest rates, the ability to adapt and implement effective strategies are fundamental to achieving good results.
The RB Capital Debêntures Incentivadas FIC FI RF fund, for example, has a strategy of searching for assets with attractive risk-return and proactive action in the secondary market.
This approach allowed the fund to achieve a return of 11.91% in 2024, standing out in the market. Likewise, the AZ Quest Debêntures Incentivadas fund achieved an accumulated return of 8.95% in the year, even with the Anbima indexes linked to the IPCA with lower performance than the CDI.
The SNID11 fund, managed by Suno Asset, also showed positive resultswith a carry above CDI + 2.2% and movements that kept the value of the equity share rising. According to Wainberg, the fund traded close to or above book value most of the time, accelerating returns and benefiting its shareholders.
The country’s current scenario has favored incentivized debenture funds, especially those indexed to the CDI, which have proven to be an attractive option for investors looking for profitable and resilient alternatives amid market volatility.
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