With the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah leader of the Lebanese group Hezbollah, for Israel and the beheading of its leadership, Lebanon is facing a sharp cliff. Great powers will seize the opportunity to reconfigure the country in the face of a possible weakening of the Shiite formation, a plan that could create new chaos.
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“We are a bit like a headless chicken at the moment, in a state extremely weak. Completely dismantled, so some groups are going to try to take control (…) There will probably be a lot of influencers, operations and opportunities to build a new power structure,” he told EFE the Lebanese security and political analyst, Georges Haddad.
Beirut, Lebanon.
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A European diplomatic source, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of this issue, told EFE that “it is clear that within the Lebanese Government this is the opportunity that they have to take, that they have to reform and that they have to elect a president. “There is desire and awareness of the seriousness of the situation.”
Lebanon has been without a president for two yearsso the Government – headed by Najib Mikati – is still interim. But the president of Parliament, Nabih Berri – who leads the Amal party, close to Hezbollah – has been in that position for 32 years. And all in a melting pot of 18 religious sects that coexist – or try to coexist – in the Mediterranean country.
On the other hand, Hezbollah’s political arm has a strong presence in the Lebanese Parliament and its armed side de facto controls the east and south of the country, an influence boosted by its work – especially social – during the 2006 war against Israelsince the group did what the State did not, which failed in the face of a population devastated by the conflict.
Foreign interference, “a recipe” for chaos
“I am 100% sure that the international community, especially countries generally close to Lebanon, such as France, Italy, the United Kingdom, the USA, the Gulf countries, “They will try to take advantage of the opportunity to try to reach new alliances among themselves (…), but also to forge new alliances within the Lebanese political scene,” Haddad said.
“The deployment of the army, the restructuring and reform of state institutions of the government and press for the State to function” These are the points that are discussed “behind closed doors,” he asserted, although everything will depend on the “Israel escalation” in Lebanon, which intensified last week and where He fears that an invasion will begin in the south of the country.
But what would happen if Lebanon is reconfigured through foreign tentacles? For analyst Sam Heller, from Century International – the foreign policy center of the American think tank The Century Foundation and based in Beirut -, “if foreign powers decide join the Lebanese political forces to try to impose a new internal Lebanese political configuration at the expense of Hezbollah, then it is a recipe for civil conflict.
Beirut, Lebanon.
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This would be reminiscent of the Lebanese civil war (1975-1990), which derived – broadly speaking – from tensions between the Christian and Muslim population, and ended the destruction of the country and the deaths of a number that reached six figures, as well as segregation into neighborhoods that belong to one group or another.
The European diplomatic source agrees with this statement: “We are seeing positive signals from Lebanese leaders condemning the attack (on Nasrallah) and calling for national unity. We are in a delicate moment which can lead to brawls and sectarian speeches, and certain actors can benefit from these narratives, and create more chaos and misinformation.
Hezbollah and after Nasrallah
32 years of leadership by the charismatic Nasrallah ended in one fell swoop in Beirut last Friday. Since that moment many scenarios have opened up for the group, all of them very uncertain and extremely volatile. Of course, they will not admit defeat, the experts agreed.
As Heller assured, one of the options is for training to join United States to negotiate an agreement with Israel “at the expense of his followers”, a topic that is currently being addressed in New York with France and the United States at the head of the conversations in which they intend a truce of 21 days.
The scenarios depend “on what the Israelis decide to do next and how they define their objectives in Lebanon,” he said, although also about Iran.
“They may make a low-profile tactical survival decision (…) The next 48 hours are crucial,” indicated the European source.
“We are at a crossroads. We do not know if the Hezbollah militia will be totally weakened. Nor if Iran, if it chooses not to go to a total war, decides to sacrifice its ally,” he said.
EFE AGENCY
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