Vladimir Putin’s reception to Bolsonaro on the eve of the invasion of Ukraine had no diplomatic effect and harmed Brazil’s image worldwide (Credit: Marcos Corrêa/Presidency of the Republic)
In the war playbook, there are three types of supporting leaders. There are heads of state who lose by supporting the aggressor. Others lose by defending the battered nation. And there are those who, because they don’t want to lose, adopt a neutral stance. But in the tragic Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Jair Bolsonaro created a fourth figure: the loser on all sides. Not knowing what to do in diplomacy – behavior that reflects his stance in all other areas of his administration – Bolsonaro puts his reputation, national security and the already fragile Brazilian economy at risk. a few months from
leave the government, tattoos the scar of imbecility on his forehead.
By not condemning the violation of Ukraine’s recognized borders, Bolsonaro reinforces that he is unaware of the most elementary rules that govern international geopolitics. Behaving like a colleague of a dictator, in a behavior that refers to the need of an abandoned poodle, the Brazilian president prostrates himself before someone who, not coincidentally, has been compared to Adolf Hitler.
The worst thing is that Bolsonaro, in an attempt to get closer to the owner of the Kremlin, is without a side. And he is not neutral. He is not Putin’s friend. The Russian president, in the turmoil of his military offensive, may not even remember his name. He’s also not politically friendly with Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader who has been without much fanfare endorsing the Ukraine war. He is also not with Joe Biden, Emmanuel Macron, Boris Johnson or any other NATO member. Nor is he a leader with regional respect. Argentina, Chile, Colombia and Venezuela await the October elections in Brazil with the same anxiety as the majority of Brazilians endowed with some cognitive structure.
Bolsonaro’s clumsy way (an expression well defined by USP political scientist Celso Grisi) leads the government pushes the country into the abyss of international fiasco. The inevitable increase in Western sanctions on Russia, one of the biggest buyers of Brazilian meat and the biggest supplier of fertilizers to agribusiness, will wipe out the operations of Brazilian companies there and bring down revenues here. At first glance, the rise in food prices and the migration of dollars to Brazil may sound like something positive, but it is not. The escalation of the war and the government’s cowardly exemption will take a heavy toll. Inflation and falling economic activity will result in increased poverty.
With such incompetence, the captain demonstrates that if he had played War as a teenager, instead of killing turtledove with a slingshot and pellet gun, he would have had some notion of war strategy, geography, economics and politics. In diplomacy, the more he shoots, the more Brazil is hurt.
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