After the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) ends data collection for the 2022 Demographic Census with only 91% of the estimated population for the country censused, the agency will have more work to do in assessing the quality of the coverage achieved and in processing the information obtained. to make the correct imputation of the data for the 9% that were not covered by the census, evaluate specialists consulted by the Broadcast (Grupo Estado’s real-time news system).
“The Assibge considers it quite sad that the Census ends with a coverage of around 90% of the population. This percentage is low, both in relation to that verified in other countries and in relation to past census operations in Brazil”, he lamented, in a note to Broadcastthe national executive of the IBGE civil servant union, Assibge.
“On the other hand, the collection operation cannot continue indefinitely, due to the lack of budget and planning for a robust collection in the coming months, as well as the increasing difficulty in obtaining the correct information regarding the situation of households and residents on the reference date. of the Census (July 31, 2022, seven months ago)”, added the entity that represents the servers of the statistical agency.
This Wednesday, the 1st, the Ministry of Planning and Budget communicated that the IBGE had ended the collection after seven months in the field, more than twice the expected time, starting the data verification stage. The first results will be released at the end of April.
The IBGE then clarified that it managed to register 189,261,144 people, equivalent to 91% of the 207.8 million inhabitants in the country in 2022, according to the preview estimated and informed by the IBGE to the Federal Audit Court (TCU).
“The Census is full of problems, you can’t hide that it was serious”, recalled demographer José Eustáquio Diniz Alves, a retired professor at the National School of Statistical Sciences (Ence). “Not having 100% coverage is nothing new. This wouldn’t have big problems if it didn’t have coverage bias, ”he pondered.
For the demographer, a proportion of 9% of inhabitants not registered is quite high, the highest he has heard of. However, he emphasizes that the most important thing at this post-collection moment is to verify whether the lack of coverage was evenly distributed among the population or whether it was concentrated in certain economic, age or social groups.
“No statistician, no demographer can say that everything is fine. It’s troublesome. But I also don’t think it’s a reason to throw the Census away. Covering 91% is better than nothing. What we have today is nothing, the 2010 Census is totally out of date”, declared Diniz Alves.
Population census coverage was greater in states such as Santa Catarina, Piauí and Paraíba, where more than 96% of residents were censused. The IBGE did not inform, however, which states had less coverage in the collection. On the morning of this Wednesday, the 1st, it was possible to verify on the IBGE portal that 20% of the census sectors had not been finalized, but the collection monitoring page was subsequently removed from the air.
“Any census anywhere in the world will be wrong, in the sense that it will not take 100% of the entire population”, stressed Roberto Luiz do Carmo, professor at the Department of Demography at the State University of Campinas (Unicamp) and former president of the Brazilian Association of Population Studies (Abep).
He recalls that there are errors associated with the issue of coverage and errors in the quality of the information captured, both of which can be treated statistically.
“These two types of errors can happen within these Census results. But the most important thing of all is that the collection has been completed”, said Carmo. “It will take work, it will be necessary to use many statistical tools, but a result will be reached that I tend to understand will be satisfactory. And more important than that is to use the learning now from this Census so that we can improve our official statistics from now on”, he defended.
According to the Ministry of Planning, in the verification stage, the technical supervisors of the IBGE can determine occasional returns to the field to check data and empty households. The institute created a Census closing committee, which includes eight demographers hired exclusively to work in the calculation stage together with the agency’s own demographers. The Census will have just one more “final and punctual operation” of collection, which will take place in the Yanomami Indigenous Land, starting on the 6th. The region still has about 50% of residents not registered, located in areas of difficult access.
The Census collection, started on August 1, 2022, would initially extend until the end of October last year. After a series of difficulties in hiring, paying salaries and keeping census takers working in the field, the deadline was successively extended. The collection has as reference date the conditions in which the Brazilian population lived on July 31, 2022.
ASSIBGE stated that the delay in collection and under-coverage are the result of the Census budget cut made by the government of former President Jair Bolsonaro and the reduction in the effective staff of the IBGE.
“In our view, this is the main lesson that must be learned for future census and statistical operations”, warned Assibge, in the note. “Since December, local collection teams have been demobilized, rented vehicles used in collection returned and equipment such as cell phones, tablets and telephone chips used by census takers and supervisors have been deactivated and collected. As a result, the collection in January and February was greatly reduced”, pointed out the union.
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