According to various military analysts, the winter will have fatal effects on the Russian army.
Kyiv – Seasons have always played an important role in European wars throughout history. Nothing changed about that. Winter is currently playing a central role in the Ukraine war. Winters in Ukraine usually start out wet and cold and then get colder and drier. The fighting in eastern Ukraine is currently taking place in the mud and at around zero degrees. However, as the winter progresses, average temperatures continue to drop. Under these conditions it is less the military strategy than the health of the soldiers that decides what happens in the war.
Military expert Theiner: “Winter will kill more Russians than Ukraine ever could”
Again Focus reports, former soldier and military expert Thomas Theiner assumes that the winter will have fatal effects on the Russian army. “Winter will kill more Russians than Ukraine ever could.” Other experts assess the situation as well. The military expert Gustav Gressel from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) speaks of “conditions like in the First World War”. Jack Watling of the British military think tank Royal United Services Institute assumes that “a high death rate from hypothermia and disease” threatens.
War in the winter months: fighting cold and disease
According to leading military analysts, the Ukrainian army is in a better position. Several factors are critical to successful warfare in winter. As the renowned British military strategist Lawrence Freedman declares loudly Focus For example: “For a soldier to survive in the cold, he needs discipline, you need leaders who force their soldiers to check the condition of their socks, keep clothes dry and do everything possible not to get sick”.
Larger food rations are also important. “And you have to change soldiers regularly so that they don’t always get cold in the cold,” emphasizes Ben Hodges, former commander in chief of the US Army in Europe.
Freezing soldiers in trenches: the Russian army lacks supplies
However, the Russian army lacks all of this. Resources were already scarce in the summer. According to experts, the situation of Russian troops will continue to deteriorate in the winter. “The Ukrainians can provide all of that, but the Russians don’t have the logistics to do it,” says Hodges. Various shots from the war zone show poorly equipped Russian soldiers in trenches. The troops consist partly of untrained young men, whose officers are often not at the front. Few of them know how to behave in the cold.
Ukraine in a better position: functioning infrastructure and support
The Russian troops are already lacking supplies in many places: hot food, heating material and warm sleeping gear are in short supply. Replenishment is proving very difficult for Russia. Since the attack on the Crimean Bridge, there has been no intact rail connection between Russia and the southern Ukrainian front. Ukraine is in a better position. It can deliver supplies to the frontline area due to a functioning infrastructure. It is also supported: Finland and Sweden recently announced new winter packages for the troops. (at)
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