The battles are raging around Kherson, which is characterized by strategic importance, amid Ukraine’s talk that Russia is targeting infrastructure and energy centers with the aim of drowning the western neighbor with darkness and frost, with the aim of winning the war.
Winter played a major role in Russian and Ukrainian military history, as it was a decisive factor in their victory over Napoleon and Nazi Germany.
white general
According to Western reports, winter, snow and the targeting of power plants will deprive Ukrainians of heating, transportation and battle supplies.
In this regard, the mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, confirmed that Ukrainians will freeze to death this winter if the West does not urgently send blankets and generators to keep them warm, according to the British newspaper, “The Telegraph”.
Nighttime temperatures are expected to drop across Ukraine, reaching lows of minus 20 degrees Celsius in some parts of the country.
Security officials and military experts say the weather will be a critical factor in the Ukraine war, according to the Financial Times.
Lower temperatures would lead to:
- Difficulty operating equipment or hiding mines under snow.
- Increased demand for fuel for generators.
- Move supplies during the night as field cover decreases.
- Navigation systems have been suspended for some drones.
- The speed of bullets becomes slower due to the density of the air.
Who wins the Winter War?
Kyiv and Moscow are in a race against time before winter complicates military operations.
The French newspaper “Le Figaro” reported that the winter, or what it described as the “white general”, intervened 4 times throughout history in favor of Russia, first against the Mongols, then against the Swedes and the French, and finally against the Germans, wondering whether he would do it in the Ukraine war?
“The weather has an impact on all activities, including the military, and its impact will include both the Russian and Ukrainian sides,” said Alexei Mlynyk, a former lieutenant colonel in the Ukrainian Air Force.
According to the Financial Times, Russian President Vladimir Putin is betting on the weak morale of Ukrainian civilians and Kyiv’s ability to support its forces after the destruction of 40 percent of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
The newspaper notes that Putin’s strategy relies on cold weather to slow the pace of the war, as this will help his forces maintain their lines of defense and retain the territories they have controlled.
But the muddy fields will require Russian heavy supply trucks to stick to paved roads to avoid swamps, something that could boost the Ukrainians’ ability to target Russian supply lines and logistics.
Although the muddy terrain will limit Ukraine’s ability to launch counterattacks, Kyiv has the advantages of keeping its forces supplied and warm after Canada supplied it with half a million winter military uniforms and the local population, including stored gas.
Russia and Ukraine plans
Anthony King, professor of war studies at the University of Warwick, says that to keep their battles going during the winter, the Ukrainians will need more logistics to support personnel because of the cold weather.
“They will need more fuel, which will force them to defend rather than attack during the winter.”
As for retired Australian Major General Mick Ryan, he told Sky News Arabia: “It is possible to compare the Winter Battle in Ukraine to the Russian-Finnish Winter War in November 1939.
He adds, “Despite the tactical effects of cold weather on military operations, there are historical examples that it did not end wars such as the Battle of the Bulge in France during World War II,” noting that “the Ukrainians could benefit from the Finns during the Winter War.”
He continues: “The Russian and Ukrainian strategies are based on the continuation of the battles in the winter, and for Moscow, its goal is to freeze the war in this season until 2023, content with mobilizing more of its forces and launching what he described as a “strategic energy war”, to pressure Kyiv either for a ceasefire or to enter into settlements. and negotiations.
As for Ukraine, it will continue to build momentum around the fighting and use the winter as an opportunity to continue reclaiming its territory.
On the impact of winter on the course of the battles, General Mick Ryan says, it will pose challenges to both sides, including:
Soldiers’ energy drained faster than normal conditions.
- Difficulty using the air force.
- Slow down the movement of vehicles of all kinds due to the presence of swamps.
- Affects the logistical support of the two armies.
- Camouflage and invisibility of troops and equipment in the winter is difficult.
- The disappearance of the leaves of the trees and the green colors that he put on the bodies of most of the military vehicles, revealing them to the enemy forces.
- The heat of people and equipment oozes more in the cold environment.
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