Until January 30, electoral surveys on the presidential elections next Sunday, February 9 could be disseminated. Only two of the 16 candidacies have the possibility of achieving triumphaccording to the last five surveys presented: the current president of the Republic, Daniel Noboa, and the president of the Citizen Revolution Movement, Luisa González.
Noboa, who belongs to the New Time Party, He faces great political wear due to violence unleashed that has frightened the population. In addition, a serious drought resulted in fourteen hours per day for three consecutive months.
Luisa González47 -year lawyer who represents the Unión de La Esperanza party and related to the former socialist governor Rafael Correa between 2007 and 2017, leads the main opposition force with a speech focused on social justice and the strengthening of the State.
Four of the five surveys claim that Noboa will receive more votes than its main opponent, but Only a survey ensures that the president will be imposed without the need for a second round. One of the surveys gives Luisa González as a provisional winner, but without an absolute majority.
The rest of the candidates could be decisive in a second round. Among them, according to the survey by Ipsos, the third position of Andrea González, of Patriotic Society (PSP), with 5.7%, Leonidas IZA, of Pachakutik, with 2.6% and Jimmy Jairala, of the Democratic Center, of the Democratic Center, of the Democratic Center, of the Democratic Center , with 2.1%.
He Ecuadorian electoral system It forces the candidate to obtain the absolute majority of the valid votes cast, that is, half plus a vote without counting null and whites. You could also win with 40% of the valid votes if you get a difference greater than 10 points with your main opponent. Otherwise, on April 13 there would be a second round in which the two candidates with more support in the first round would compete for the presidency.
13.7 million Ecuadorians, summoned
More than 13.7 million Ecuadorians are summoned to the polls To choose their national authorities for a period of four years (2025-2029), including those who will hold the Presidency and Vice Presidency, the new 151 assembly members who will compose the National Assembly (Parliament) and five representatives for the Andean Parliament.
The electoral campaign began on Sunday, January 5 and will end at midnight on February 6. It is developing in a climate of violence never seen despite 2023 and 2024 were the two years with more homicides in the history of Ecuador. Only in this month of January there have been more than 750 homicides.
More than 30 politicians have been killed in Ecuador since the 2023 elections, including andThe candidate for the presidency Fernando Villavicencio, who was shot when he left a rally in Quito On the eve of the first round of that year. Seven provinces and three municipalities are under state of exception renewed on January 3 for two more months.
On December 8, four children aged 11 to 15 were arrested by a military patrol and were found dead, burned and signs of torture Two weeks later near a military barracks. 16 military linked to these crimes are in preventive detention by order of the Prosecutor’s Office.
Candidates are limiting their public campaign acts for Fear of armed attacks After several attacks and kidnappings that occurred in recent weeks against politicians of different formations.
Daniel Granja, presidential candidate of the Socialist PartyHe said that “doing politics in these circumstances is simply impossible” and he considered leaving the electoral contest after the attempt to murder a partner of his party and the threats he was receiving.
In October 2024, The car of the son of another candidate, the journalist Jimmy Jairala, was shot. The driver, who exercised the work of bodyguards, was achieved by three shots. The police had already assigned the candidate a security device made up of nine agents for the threats received.
In Ecuador, the suffrage is mandatory for citizens between 18 and 65 who are in the Electoral Registry. For those who are 16 years old and under 18 and for those over 65, the vote is optional, as for disabled people and members of the National Police and Armed Forces. Who does not vote receives an economic sanction equivalent to 10% of the basic salary, about 46 euros.
Residents abroad
The Electoral Registry for General Elections 2025 has 6,741,091 men (49.61%) and 6,995,223 women (50.39%). Besides, 456,487 Ecuadorians residing abroad They are enabled to vote.
An alliance of media led by Fundamedios, an Ecuadorian non -governmental organization created in 2007, has denounced that “236 of the 2,089 candidates for the National Assembly have had or have or have criminal processes against him733 have pending tax statements and 153 have debts with the treasury. “
The alleged crimes of 11% of candidates involved are very varied: “Scam, sale of public office, usurpation and simulation of public functions, abuse of trust, slander, paralysis of public services, fuel theft, intrafamily violence, organized crime and murder“, As specified by the Digital Primicias.
Some candidates, ensures journalistic investigation, have used their appointments on the electoral lists to ask the judges to suspend the processes against him based on article 108 of the Integral Criminal Code that affirms that “candidates may not be private or processed until the proclamation of the results, except in cases of flagrant crime, sexual crimes, gender and intrafamily violence.”
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