No one will discover America if they say that the PASO is a big poll (of the ones that get it right). And neither if it says that They are the bulletin where people put a note to the government of the day. But this newsletter brings new things because although the subjects are always, or almost always, the same, they are never the same.
If it were for the two main ones, economy and pandemic, the result would be sung: disapproval and, as Máximo would say, sanseafinished. You could even add a minus 4 for another main subject: institutionality. But no one can assure that that would do the Peronist electorate and, above all, the toughest.
There’s a week left for the verdict and it’s naive to hide the rare mixture of apathy and compelled interest that arouses. That is why there is increased anxiety in matches. The Government is playing with two figures: win an extra half dozen MPs to have their own quorum in that chamber and lose no more than four senators to continue having its own quorum in the other.
And how does the hand come? Confused It happens that the polls, if they were erratic so many times, they are more so now. Face-to-face questions, which had already been reduced for costs, were cut in half by the pandemic. Good consultants take only 15% of the samples in person: the rest is by phone. They have had to redesign them to replace field work with qualitative research. That means less data and more interpretation and guesswork.
And there are two more things. One is the anger of the people with the political leadership, which is close to the highest historical record and which is noticeable, above all, in the lack of answers to the questions that measure the intention to vote. It was around 10% in 2019: today it exceeds 25%. The other thing that gives the prediction more volatility: nobody knows how many will vote. Turnout in this year’s elections fell between 15 and 18 points compared to 2019.
But, as always, there will be two elections in one (the national one and the one in Buenos Aires) to qualify the government’s management. For the opposition, it will be much more than choosing candidates: the PASO will begin to redefine spaces of internal power. From the arm wrestling between Santilli and Manes, Larreta’s aspiration to become head of the Pro and presidential candidate of 2023 will come out well or badly. And the radicals, who seek greater prominence in the opposition alliance, will draw a new map of party leadership. Much depends on what happens in two districts: Córdoba and Santa Fe.
Blessed by the traditional party apparatus and supported by Macri, Negri faces a difficult fight in Córdoba against Juez and De Laredo, sponsored by Buenos Aires Yacobitti and Lousteau and by Patricia Bullrich. Just in case, Larreta, Negri’s friend, declared himself dispensing. In Santa Fe everything is even more mixed and fragmented: Negri and Carrió are with Corral, Macri and Larreta with Angelini and Yacobitti and Lousteau with Pullaro.
In November the fight will come in the background and out. But now, with what people say about the government, that dish is already beginning to be cooked.