After this week the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, lowered his threats of retaliation for the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATOthe main obstacle to the accession of these two countries to the Atlantic Alliance now seems to come from the same organization on behalf of one of its members: Turkey.
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The truth is that the Turkish opposition to the candidatures of Stockholm and Helsinki to NATO it should be possible to solve it with a mix of concessions and pressure on the Erdogan governmentaccording to analysts, but the hypothesis of a complete lockdown cannot be ruled out.
We explain three key points about Turkey’s position:
Can Turkey block the entry of Sweden and Finland?
Unanimity is necessary to start discussions on accession to NATO and each member country must also ratify the agreement at the parliamentary level, giving de facto right of veto to each of its 30 current members.
A member of NATO since the organization’s early years (1952), Turkey can then theoretically block the entry of both Nordic countries.
After having affirmed on Tuesday that he will not “give in”, its president Recep Tayyip Erdogan asked NATO members on Wednesday to “listen” to his “concerns”.
Meeting in Brussels on Wednesday morning for the official handover of the Swedish and Finnish candidatures, the ambassadors of the alliance countries failed to reach an agreement on the immediate launch of accession discussions, due to Turkish opposition.
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Many issues have pitted Turkey and the West against each other in recent years, and Turkey has not always won, analysts say.
For Paul Levin, director of the Institute of Turkish Studies at Stockholm University, an agreement is likely to be reached.
“In this very strategic issue, I bet that Sweden will make concessions and other NATO countries will contribute by putting pressure on Turkey and granting it some wishes,” he says.
But a complete blockade “cannot be ruled out, especially since the PKK issue is very sensitive for many Turks,” according to him.
What is the problem for Turkey?
With Sweden in their sights, Turkish critics focus on the attitude of both countries on the issue of Kurdish groups. Mainly about the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), and also Kurdish armed movements in Syria fought by Turkey.
Described as a “terrorist organization” by Turkey, the PKK is also considered that way by the United States and the European Union, including Sweden and Finland.
But Sweden’s anti-terrorism laws are not as extensive as in Turkey, stresses Paul Levin, director of the Institute for Turkish Studies at Stockholm University.
“For example, it is not forbidden to be a member or to wave a flag of a terrorist organization,” he stresses, which makes it possible to organize frequent pro-PKK demonstrations in the streets of Stockholm.
Turkey reproaches both countries for rejecting its requests for the extradition of members of “terrorist organizations”.
Turkish annoyance with the PKK has expanded in recent years to Swedish signs of support for armed Kurdish groups in Syria, such as the anti-Islamic State militia People’s Protection Units (YPG).
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With other European countries, both banned arms exports to Turkey in October 2019, in retaliation for a Turkish offensive in northern Syria.
Turkey, which criticizes Stockholm for promoting these measures, He does not want countries that exercised “sanctions” against Turkey to enter NATO, according to Erdogan.
What does Turkey want?
In addition to the solution of the disputes with Sweden over the KurdsTurkish President Erdogan can obtain concessions on US weapons, try to improve domestic popularity and even send a favorable signal to Russia, with which he has complex relations, according to analysts.
“Erdogan is a leader accustomed to compromises in his country’s relations with the West, and I think he is trying to make a big deal out of it, not just trying to force Sweden to change over the PKK,” says Soner Cagaptay, director of Turkey research at the Washington Institute.
The issue of US warplane exports to Turkey is regularly cited as a clue to a solution.
The purchase of Russian S-400 surface-to-air missiles by Turkey in 2019 led to it being excluded from the US F-35 program.
An unblocking in this sense is unlikely, but negotiations have been held in recent weeks on an agreement to export and modernize a previous generation aircraft, the F-16.
The US Parliament must authorize the transaction, and the deal could be seen as blackmail by Turkey, which lawmakers would not like, according to analysts.
INTERNATIONAL WRITING
*With AFP
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