After several weeks of great uncertainty, the process of rapprochement between Washington, the regime of Nicolás Maduro and the Venezuelan opposition, with the aim of plowing the ground for free and fair elections this year in the neighboring country, entered into crisis.
(You can read: Diosdado Cabello refers to the US deadline for Venezuela: 'They are not going to break us')
This Wednesday, and a few days after the Supreme Court of Justice in that country confirmed the disqualification of María Corina Machado – winner of the primary elections in October last year and opposition candidate for those elections –, the Department of State of The US responded, and strongly, announcing the cancellation of License 43 that allowed transactions with the metallurgical sector as of February 13. In addition, he threatened the non-renewal in April of License 44, which temporarily lifted the sanctions imposed several years ago against Venezuelan oil and gas.
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The Venezuelan opponent María Corina Machado.
Both licenses were part of a three-way agreement reached in October of last year in Barbados in which the opposition and Maduro agreed on a roadmap for an electoral process that included the release of political prisoners, guarantees of participation, international verification, among others. other things, and to which the United States joined with the relaxation of its sanctions package. In this process, the Colombian Álex Saab, Maduro's designated figurehead, was also released.
The Chavista regime, after hearing the news, counterattacked with its own bomb. On the one hand, he insisted that what happened to Machado is “irreversible.” And, on the other hand, he said that he would immediately cancel repatriation flights for Venezuelan migrants from the United States, something that was not part of the Barbados agreements, but that the Biden administration welcomed with enthusiasm given the crisis on the southern border. largely created by the exodus of Venezuelans.
(Keep reading: Venezuela: Japan also demands 'free and fair elections' from Nicolás Maduro)
On paper, and if the positions are maintained, the set of actions by both parties could mark the end of the “experiment” that the Democratic administration devised to find a way out of a crossroads that is almost measured in decades. A solution whose epicenter was to use the lifting of sanctions as a carrot to obtain concessions that would lead to a free and fair electoral process and that, at the same time, would benefit Washington on two fronts that concern it: immigration and the international oil market. .
Former president and candidate for the Republican nomination, Donald Trump.
As recalled, after arriving at the White House, Biden made a 180-degree turn in his approach towards Venezuela, indicating that the “maximum pressure” policy used by his predecessor, Donald Trump, had not produced results.
In a conversation with journalists this Wednesday, the White House emphasized this point after indicating that the policy of sanctions to pressure a change had not produced results and, on the contrary, generated adverse effects for the United States and provided benefits to rivals such as China and Iran, which expanded their presence in the country. Likewise, that the process, which was entered into in good faith, had produced results. Among them, the Barbados agreement, the release of both Venezuelan and American detainees and the integration of an international coalition to accompany the process.
(You can read: International pressure increases on Venezuela due to the disqualification of María C. Machado)
“We don't know if we are going to achieve those objectives. What we do know is that the above was not working,” a US official said in that talk.
The problem, according to Michael Shifter, former director of the Inter-American Dialogue and now a professor at George Washington University, is that with Venezuela there were never good options.
“I think it was a bet. They took a chance to see how far they would go. Offer concessions so that democracy had a chance. And that is something that I recognize. But, I refuse to believe that their calculations did not include this outcome, which was the most probable. It was obvious that Maduro was not going to allow the candidacy of Machado or anything that would put Chavismo in check because that means losing power and being exposed to judicial actions,” says Shifter.
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It was obvious that Maduro was not going to allow the candidacy of Machado or anything that would put Chavismo in check because that means losing power and being exposed to judicial actions.
Furthermore, this analyst maintains, people sometimes seem not to understand that Maduro, like Andrés Manuel López Obrador in Mexico, has “leverage” with the Biden administration. “The two issues that matter most to this administration and on which his re-election may depend, are immigration and oil, and both, in some way, go through Venezuela. The return of democracy matters to them, but these two weigh even more,” says Shifter.
Precisely for this reason, says this expert on Latin American issues, it is not even certain that the US will comply with its threat to cancel licenses, especially the one that expires in April.
(Keep reading: Why does the United States recognize that sanctions against Venezuela have not worked?)
Added to this, he affirms, is that many American and European companies are already doing business with Venezuela since the sanctions were lifted and it would be very difficult and expensive to tell them now that they have to leave again.
Both in the conversation with journalists and in public statements given by Matthew Miller, spokesman for the State Department, Washington implied that there is still room to reach a new arrangement given that there are still 15 days left until the first license is canceled and more than two months for the second.
That, in part, could explain the wave of diplomatic movements that were reported at the end of this week. On the one hand, there were rumors about an urgent and secret meeting on a Caribbean island between Jorge Rodríguez, president of the National Assembly and Maduro's representative in negotiations with the opposition, and Juan González, the National Security Advisor for the Western Hemisphere. of Biden.
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In addition, This newspaper was able to unofficially confirm the visit to Bogotá starting tomorrow of the Assistant National Security Advisor, Jon Finner, together with González, for another emergency meeting with President Gustavo Petro.
Although the details are unknown, it is known that the topic is Venezuela and strategies to direct the dialogues. It is possible, analysts say, that both the US and Maduro are raising the stakes to force the opponent's hand as zero hour approaches. In a few weeks – or perhaps days – we will know if what is coming is an inevitable train wreck or some solution that is not yet on the table.
For Shifter, in any case, if the experiment ends up failing, more than a victory for Maduro or a defeat for Biden, “the big losers will be the same as always: the Venezuelan people.”
SERGIO GÓMEZ MASERI
EL TIEMPO correspondent
Washington
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