In the face of events as destructive and enormous as the Hurricane Helene and now Milton -which severely affected Florida-, the logic suggests that partisan disputes be put aside to work hand in hand for the victims and reconstruction efforts. But, nothing more distant from that reality happens in the United States.
According to the criteria of
Just four weeks before the presidential elections and in the midst of extreme polarization like the one we are experiencing, Natural disasters have become the epicenter of the electoral contest and the preferred line of attack between rivals.
Particularly of donald trumpwho has been criticizing Joe Biden’s administration for more than 10 days – and therefore his campaign rival Kamala Harris– as he said, for “abandoning” the states that have been most affected after natural disasters.
Largely, The Republican candidate responded to a new deluge of misinformation along with sectors related to his campaign that at times has bordered on the absurd.
Trump has suggested that the Biden-Harris administration has manipulated the weather to specifically impact Republican-majority states.
Among the series of conspiracy theories that have gained traction on right-wing social networks, the one that maintains that the Democrats and the current administration have manipulated the weather to specifically impact Republican-majority states like Georgia and North Carolina in order to win the elections.
Another suggests that the hurricanes are a government plan to take over sectors of North Carolina and exploit its lithium mines.
Trump, for his part, has suggested that the Biden-Harris administration is concentrating its efforts on areas where Democratic voters live while neglecting areas populated by Republicans.
Likewise, and as is customary, Trump found an immigration angle to the catastrophe.
According to the former president, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) by its acronym in English), which is the one that assists the states in these emergency cases, He has no resources because he spent them all housing illegal immigrants in five-star hotels in New York and other cities.
Something that is false, as reports from various media outlets have shown.
Although Fema allocates resources to provide accommodation to immigrants who are legally in the country – not illegally – these come from a specific budget approved by Congress exclusively for this purpose and have nothing to do with the funds available for natural disasters, another item. separately and also under the mandate of the legislature.
The administration has already provided more than $210 million in aid and will finance one hundred percent of the cost associated with debris removal.
The former president has criticized, in passing, the $750 per person that Fema authorized for those affected by Helene, classifying the sum as a “mockery.”. Likewise, he insists that the money is a loan that they will have to pay back or else the state will confiscate their homes.
The Agency has made it clear that the aid, which is a donation not a loan, is an initial emergency fee so that people can buy basic necessities and that in the near future more resources will be available, highlighting that the administration already has provided more than $210 million in aid and will finance one hundred percent of the cost associated with debris removal and other emergency measures.
Wave of misinformation puts the work of the authorities at risk
The wave of misinformation is having a high impact, since many have begun to distrust Fema and other organizations such as the Red Crosswho collaborate in the efforts.
It is the height of irresponsibility and, frankly, insensitivity. Lives are literally at stake…
Government officials, relief agencies and even Republican politicians in these states have responded to the rumors, warning that they make work more difficult and only add to the misery victims already suffer.
“It is the height of irresponsibility and, frankly, insensitivity. There are literally lives at stake right now, real human beings who are losing everything. But Trump is politicizing this for his personal goals. The lack of empathy at such a basic level is shameful,” Harris said when asked about it.
What is Donald Trump’s strategy?
But, with elections as tight as the current ones and where there is so much at stake, anything seems to go.
According to Aaron Blake, political analyst for the Washington PostTrump’s strategy is clear: Harris, as a representative of the current administration, will be judged by the effectiveness of the government’s response to the hurricanes. Particularly in two states, Georgia and North Carolina, where he needs to win and which are currently tied in a technical tie.
“Painting the government’s actions as deficient and partisan could tip the balance of those who are still undecided,” says the expert.
History also shows that These types of natural events can have specific political consequences depending on how they are handled.
According to Blake, these types of events can be so influential that the current ones – Helene and Milton – could well be classified as the “October surprise” that ends up tilting the outcome of the elections.
For example, George W. Bush’s disputed response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005 cost Republicans control of Congress in the following year’s elections.
Bush Sr. also suffered in Florida in the 1992 elections as a result of Hurricane Andrew passing through that state.
According to Blake, these types of events can be so influential that The current ones – Helene and Milton – could well be classified as the “October surprise” that ends up tilting the result of the elections.
Although Democrats are on the defensive – as those responsible for recovery efforts – they have their own weapon at their disposal to hit the opposition: the current ferocity of hurricanes is a consequence of climate change, a concept that both Trump and many Republicans they deny.
And that could also weigh on voters when making a final decision.
Inability to vote due to hurricane damage?
But, there is another factor that is equally difficult to measure and that, perhaps, ends up causing its own impact.
To a large extent, The bulk of the damage left by Helena – and probably Milton – was concentrated in areas of North Carolina and Georgia where Republicans are the vast majority, which could reduce their level of participation. either because they decide to relocate to other states or due to their own difficulties voting in the devastated areas.
A report by the Brennan Center for Justice to measure the electoral impact of Hurricane Michael in the 2018 legislative elections placed the decrease in the vote at seven percent as a direct consequence of the natural disaster.
And in an election as close as the one between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, any margin, even the smallest, could be the difference between victory or defeat.
At the moment, nobody knows. And as is often the case with these types of events, the narrative only emerges several weeks later and will depend a lot on the reality on the ground. But what is clear is that the hurricanes have become, overnight, a high-impact political storm in the final stretch to take over the White House.
SERGIO GÓMEZ MASERI – EL TIEMPO Correspondent – Washington
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