The same decrease is also noticeable in countries that have a different vaccination rate from ours or have undertaken different restrictions than Italy. The main variable is the contagiousness of the variant, but other factors also come into play
In Italy the peak of the Omicron wave was overtaken. Cases began to decline from January 18, the day with the all-time high of new positives in one day: 228,179.
Visually the trend of the growth of the cases was very fast and just as quickly the cases seem to decrease. so in many countries that have faced the Omicron wave, regardless of the vaccination status of the resident population and the different restriction measures adopted. How come?
The rapid descent is a consequence of the rapid ascent of the cases, variables which, in turn, depend on the formidable contagiousness of Omicron. A variant with an R0 (r with zero), which is the base reproduction number (representing the average amount of secondary infections produced by each infected individual), equal to 10 it infects most susceptible people in a very short time. Simplifying the explanation, everyone gets sick at the same time and everyone heals at the same time. Omicron is very quick to find people to infect (and therefore to rapidly increase the count of new positives), but at some point it runs out of its pelvis, so it finds subjects to be infected less easily.
Does it all depend only on the contagiousness of the virus? Not only that: it is not true that the measures taken in contrast to the spread of the virus are not valid. For example in Germany (see graph above, ed) the contagion curve is still growing because it came later in the Omicron country. It was first held back by the necessary lockdown against Delta. Furthermore, even if there are no widespread closures, there has been talk of a self-induced lockdown effectwhen citizens alone limit their movements and visits to avoid getting sick.
And the story of the German (or Austrian) lockdown against Delta also tells us that the population vaccination rate matters. Italy is one of the most vaccinated countries in the world and has not had to close against Delta. Others have done so.
With regard to Omicron, the vaccination rate has not changed the contagion curve very much (since the vaccine loses its effectiveness compared to the ability to slow down the transmission of the variant), but it has changed the trend of hospitalizations and deaths a lot. The restrictions (in addition to the percentage of the vaccinated population) also serve a spread over several weeks the percentage of the population that needs a hospital (or a tampon): an attempt not to have the healthcare system overwhelmed during an exponential growth of an epidemic.
All these variables together they give account of the rapidity (or not) of the descent of the infections and they all play a role in determining the trend of the curve.
February 6, 2022 (change February 6, 2022 | 19:48)
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