The situation in hospitals is stable but cases are growing in the center-south. The immunologist Viola: Data not consolidated, but could weigh the arrival of BA2 and the decline in vaccine protection, even after the booster
Sars-Cov-2 continues to circulate in Italy and Europe and the virus is far from gone. In some regions, in particular in the center and south, we see the first, worrying signs of atrend reversalwith i contagions in slight growth again. As reported on Twitter Lorenzo Ruffino, who has been following the curves since the onset of the pandemic, the infections are on the rise compared to the previous 7 days: + 4% Saturday, + 14% Sunday, + 23% MondayThe virus growing in Umbria (where BA2 circulates) Calabria, Molise, Puglia, Sicily and Valle d’Aosta. The body Giorgio Sestili estimates the Rt to rise, at 1.3. The backlash we are witnessing due to the fact that everything is open and this makes us less attentive, but the virus is still around. We are also in March and it is still cold, Sestili told Adn-Kronos. Without forgetting that in recent days many schools have closed for carnival holidays and travel may have contributed to a greater spread of the virus.
The curve
It is normal for the pandemic curve to slow down the decline after a rapid descent. It is not normal for the contagion curve to restart reflects the immunologist Antonella Violafull professor of General Pathology at the University of Padua who calls for caution: The data are not consolidated, it is true that we have seen the infections increase in the last three days compared to the previous week, but for a real evaluation we need the numbers of at least a week, the changes on a daily level tell us little and soon to talk about a reversal. Furthermore, we should eventually be concerned about the increases in hospitalizations.
The causes
There is also an increase in cases in other European countries. In the United Kingdom, the growth in progress since 27 February; the
n France and Germany since the beginning of March: it is still premature to speak of a turnaround. If this growth trend is confirmed in Italy too, What could be the cause? The reasons can be various and linked, speculates Antonella Viola. Even if in Italy we do few sequencing BA2, the sub-variant of Omicron, has arrived Also here. We do not know its real prevalence, but we do know that it is more contagious and that it is circulating. Although rarely those who have been infected with Omicron can subsequently become infected with Omicron 2, and the fact that it is more transmissible widens the pelvis of susceptible people. Furthermore, there are still many unvaccinated people, especially in the under 11 group, and 7 million Italians have chosen not to take the third dose. We also know that after a few months drops the protection of the booster, at least against the infection, and those who took the third dose in November or December still protected from the serious illness, but unfortunately much less from the contagion. According to the analyzes of the Ceinge-Advanced Biotechnology, based on data from the international bank Gisaid, there are three sisters of the Omicron variant currently in circulation in Italy, where the presence of Delta is no longer detected. The first version of Omicron, BA.1, is contracting (53%) due to the pressure of BA.1.1, present for 36%, and BA.2, equal to 5%. A third sub-variant, BA.3 , has for now a very limited diffusion.
The causes and forecasts
High circulation of the virus (currently positive are over one million), arrival of Omicron sub-variants, decrease in vaccine protection (even of the third dose), still high number of unvaccinated people (especially children) and not boostered, general relaxation may push the pandemic curve up? I can expect a “hump” in the downhill curve but today we are out of the Covid emergency. It does not mean that we are out of the pandemic, but that the severe forms and hospitalizations are under control for now. We have to learn how to manage a virus that will always be with us in non-emergency mode.
The situation in hospitals
The hospital situation on Covid admissions seems stable for now. Photographed by the monitoring of the National Agency for Regional Health Services (Agenas), updated to 6 March, from which it emerges that the occupation of places in intensive care by Covid patients stops at 6%, compared to 28% that was recorded a year ago. The percentage of beds in the non-critical area was also stable at 14%, from 32% a year ago. The bulletin of 8 March of the Ministry of Health instead notes a slight increase in hospitalizations: 592 patients are in intensive care, 50 more than the day before, while the hospitalized in the ordinary wards are 8,776. In the last week, however, one emerges mortality decreasing in all age groupsboth in the North and in the Center-South, which brings the values in line with the expected, is emphasized in the weekly report.
Problem not solved
However, the data indicate that the unfinished pandemic and viral circulation in Italy is still very high, explains the president of the Gimbe Foundation, Nino Cartabellotta. With the pandemic figures clearly improving and the dramatic situation in Ukraine that has attracted public attention, there is a risk of a serious drop in attention towards Covid, which is a problem that is far from solved, he warns. And on arriving Ukrainian refugees, we must not let our guard down because the vaccination rate in Ukraine is still at 35%. The Civil Protection machine ready with an assistance plan that includes a swab within 48 hours of entry and the offer of vaccination.
March 8, 2022 (change March 8, 2022 | 19:18)
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