The impending crisis in Ukraine, which threatens Europe with a war unprecedented in the last 30 years, it has its origin since last year when Russia decided, as in 2014, to accumulate troops on the border with Ukraine.
(Read here: Russia’s reasons for considering putting missiles in Cuba and Venezuela)
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry estimates that there are some 127,000 Russian soldiers on its borders and that they have abundant military equipment, including hundreds of armored vehicles and short-range surface-to-surface ballistic missiles.
(Also: What the United States does not understand about Russia)
That added to the fact that the US State Department gave the green light this Thursday to three allies of the NATO to send anti-armor missiles and other weapons made in the United States to Ukraine, in a decision that comes amid high tension generated by a possible Russian intervention in Ukrainian territory.
(You may be interested in: Antony Blinken arrives in Ukraine seeking to ease tensions with Russia)
In turn, Moscow announced on Thursday naval exercises in January and February in the Atlantic, the Arctic, the Pacific and the Mediterranean. “In total, more than 140 warships and support vessels, more than 60 aircraft, 1,000 items of military equipment and some 10,000 soldiers will take part” in these exercises, the Russian Defense Ministry said, quoted by the press agencies of that country.
(Don’t stop reading: The reasons why Europe faces the greatest risk of war in 30 years)
What happened in 2014 in Ukraine?
The 2014 war began after a political upheaval in Ukraine was able to topple a pro-Russian president and put a pro-European one in his place. Russia reacted by causing this de facto separation of Donbas, the southeastern region of Ukraine that Kiev does not control and that is supported by Moscow with men, weapons and money, annexing Crimea.
The conflict caused at least 13,000 fatalities and more than half a million displaced people. Since then, Europe and U.S respond with sanctions on Russia.
When did the tension escalate again in Kiev?
The escalation of tension began again in early 2021, with more clashes between Ukrainian troops and armed Donbas separatists that left dozens dead on both sides.
Washington accuses Russia of amassing more than 100,000 men a few dozen kilometers from the Ukraine border with the intention of launching a military invasion. Moscow denies having any bellicose intention and assures that its deployment is not that important and that it is also only doing it as a dissuasive measure against what it considers “provocations” by Ukraine.
In addition, it is speculated that he encouraged the displacement of thousands of migrants to the border between Belarus – his ally – and Poland to destabilize Western European countries.
At that time, NATO defense ministers agreed to support Ukraine, but still without massive arms sales.
According to the International Peace Research Institute in Stockholm, a world reference in the study of countries’ military spending, Russia annually spends 65,000 million dollars in Defense while Ukraine spend 5.2 billion.
What does Russia demand from the United States and NATO to prevent an attack on Ukraine?
Russia claims to feel threatened by Nato’s expansion to its borders, prompting the Kremlin to present unusually detailed security proposals to which the United States has already said it will not formally respond.
Among others, the elimination of the promise that one day Ukraine will be a NATO member state, moving its military maneuvers away from the Russian borders and stopping placing short and medium-range missiles in Europe, something that the secretary general of NATO Jens Stoltenberg has already rejected it, as has US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
“The main problem is that the US and NATO are not willing to make any concessions of any kind on the key demands of NATO not enlarging, deploying Alliance infrastructure and returning to 1997 boundaries.” . “And, of course, also with regard to binding guarantees on the non-positioning of (offensive) systems near our borders,” said Sergey Ryabkov, Russian deputy foreign minister.
Was there any kind of dialogue between Russia and NATO?
The United States has called for a diplomatic solution with Russia to resolve tensions in Ukraine but, at least in public, the two great powers remain at odds.
The American President, Joe Biden, and the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, held a phone call in early December, Biden threatened Putin with sanctions “the likes of which he had never seen” if he attacked Ukraine.
Russia and its ruling elite are already the target of numerous economic reprisals from Western countries for the Ukrainian issue and the repression in the country, but none of these measures have changed the Kremlin’s attitude, rather the opposite.
Later, at the end of December 2021, Biden and Putin spoke again by phone to make the diplomatic path prevail in the crisis generated by the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
During January, delegates from both countries met in Geneva for a round of talks – which included NATO – but they did not have much effect.
Finally, Blinken traveled to Europe this week on a diplomatic tour that will take him this Friday to speak with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, with a view to maintaining dialogue as the most appropriate option to end the conflict.
Why does the United States not give in to Russia?
Riabkov said Russia wanted legal and binding guarantees from NATO that it would not expand into Ukraine, a former Soviet republic in the grip of a pro-Russian rebellion since 2014.
He also called for the withdrawal of NATO’s 2008 Bucharest declaration, which opened the door to eventual accession by Ukraine and Georgia. “We see a threat that
Ukraine is increasingly joining NATO without even becoming a formal member of the organization. This is at the core of Russia’s security interests,” he said.
Blinken ruled out this demand in advance, assuring that “one nation cannot simply dictate its choice to another.”
Bill Taylor, a former US ambassador to Ukraine, doubted there was a way to resolve these differences.
The Biden administration “hasn’t flinched, despite all the pressure and temptation, and from my point of view it’s not going to,” said Taylor, now at the US think tank Institute of Peace. “To do so would be to treat Ukraine as a non-sovereign state,” he said.
But, in his view, the INF Treaty offers a way forward as long as Putin rules out an invasion. “If he wants to have a negotiation on his security concerns, the United States and NATO have indicated that they are very willing,” he insisted.
Despite US statements, the entry of
Ukraine or Georgia to NATO in the short term, as there are European countries that are very reluctant to commit to defending nations that are already in conflict with Russia.
What is the latest that has happened regarding Ukraine?
The State Department gave three NATO allies the green light Thursday to send anti-armor missiles and other US-made weapons to Ukraine.
According to the magazine Politician, NATO’s Baltic allies Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia will be able to transfer US-made weapons such as anti-armor and anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine.
The Biden administration will also begin the process of shipping $200 million worth of anti-armor missiles, ammunition and other equipment to
Ukraine in the next few days.
Under export control regulations, the three countries had to obtain approval from the State Department before transferring their weapons to
Ukraine.
In addition, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, warned Russia on Thursday with “massive” sanctions in the event of military action in Ukraine, with potentially devastating effects on the Russian trade balance.
“If the situation deteriorates, if there are more attacks on the territorial integrity of
Ukraine, we will respond with massive economic and financial sanctions,” von der Leyen said in a speech broadcast during a virtual session of the World Economic Forum.
“The European Union is by far Russia’s largest trading partner and by far its largest investor. And yes, this trade relationship is important to us. But it is much more important to Russia,” he added.
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