POLLS TODAY 11 AUGUST 2021
POLLS TODAY – The elections in Rome continue to be uncertain, in which the only candidate who seems to be certain of reaching the ballot is that of the center-right, Enrico Michetti. This was stated by the Opinio Italia survey conducted for Rai, which sees the candidate supported Fratelli d’Italia, Lega and Forza Italia in the lead with a figure between 31 and 35%, down however by two percentage points. The voting preferences see in second place the candidate of the Democratic Party, the former Minister of Economy Roberto Gualtieri between 23 and 27% and the current mayor Virginia Raggi of the 5 Star Movement only in third place, between 17 and 21%, leaving behind Carlo Calenda, leader of Action, given between 15 and 19%. According to Opinio at the moment Gualtieri would have the advantage to win the second place in the ballot.
The center-right is also ahead in Turin, with Paolo Damilano given between 42 and 46% compared to 39-43% attributed to Stefano Lo Russo, beating Valentina Sganga of the 5 Star Movement at 8-12%.
In Milan, on the other hand, the Opinio surveys see the center-left ahead, with Beppe Sala between 44 and 48%, who leads Luca Bernardo, seen between 40 and 44%. In Bologna, the candidate of the center-left and of the 5-Star Movement Matteo Lepore has a strong advantage over Fabio Battistini, supported by the center-right, with a fork between 55 and 59% compared to Battistini’s 36-40%.
Also in Naples the center-left and M5S candidate Gaetano Manfredi has a strong advantage over Catello Maresca, of the center-right, figures respectively at 42-46% and 27-31%, with the former mayor and president of the Campania region Antonio Bassolino at 14 -18%.
How surveys are done
The electoral and political polls are carried out by opinion polling societies respecting very specific scientific criteria. The authors of the surveys must identify a sample to be interviewed that is sufficiently large and representative of the population to be analyzed. In the case of polls on voting intentions for parties or the confidence index of political leaders, therefore, the interviewees must adequately represent the Italian population of age, those who have the right to vote and who go to the polls.
This work is done to minimize the margin of error and make the detection as reliable as possible. Usually a political-electoral poll is considered reliable if the indicated margin of error is 3 percent with a 95 percent confidence interval. It is precisely that of identifying a representative sample of the population that is the greatest difficulty for pollsters. Interviews for political electoral polls are usually conducted with a Cati methodology, by telephone, or Cawi, via the Internet, or mixed. To carry out the interviews, opinion polling companies rely on specialized companies.
Read also: All polls