The United Nations Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Middle East (UNRWA) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ) they lead the bets for the Nobel Peace Prize, whose winner will be announced this Friday in Oslo by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
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Both organizations feature prominently in the forecasts of the Peace Research Institute (PRIO) in Oslo and the Norwegian Peace Council, as well as in betting houses.
And it is that Specialists try to predict a winner in the midst of a global panorama turbulent due to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle Eastfamine in Sudan and climate collapse.
“A peace prize for UNRWA will be strong recognition for its work in the face of a difficult political and economic situation,” said the Norwegian Peace Council.
UNRWA provides aid to millions of Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank and neighboring countries. But rewarding its work could anger Israeli authorities, who accuse the organization of complicity with Hamas.
If awarded, the UN agency could receive the award along with its head, the Swiss-Italian Philippe Lazzarini.
Another way to address the Middle East conflict, as well as the Russian offensive in Ukraine, could be to honor the International Court of Justice (ICJ), responsible for resolving conflicts between countries to avoid war.
The ICJ, the highest UN court based in The Hague, ordered Russia to cease its invasion of Ukraine and, months ago, ordered Israel to immediately stop its military operations in Rafah, in southern Gaza.
The orders were ignored on the ground, but increased pressure on the two countries to respect international law.
“The ICJ has made important contributions,” says Henrik Urdal, director of the Oslo Peace Research Institute.
“Obviously it is not a court that has the power or structure to give force to its decisions, but rather it depends on the international community to follow up on its rulings,” he explains.
The Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the UNESCOthe Council of Europe, the Emergency Response Rooms initiative for Sudan and the Afghan activist Mahbouba Seraj These are other names that these two institutions point out as candidates.
The president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, appears well placed in the betting houses’ pools for another year, but the fact that Ukraine is an active part of the war and that the Ukrainian Center for Civil Liberties was awarded two years ago They seem to narrow down your options.
The Russian activist Alexei Navalny is another of the names that stand out in the pools, despite the fact that the Nobel Prize cannot award people who have already died.
If the Nobel Committee opts for an environmental prize, the Swedish activist Greta Thunberg – a great favorite in past editions – and the British David Attenborough are two of the strongest options, although the Nobel Peace Prize already honored the former US vice president in 2007. .USA Al Gore and Indian Rajendra Pachauri, from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The World Health Organization (WHO), Uyghur activist Ilham Tohti, the Campaign to Stop Killer Robots, Belarusian opposition activist Svetlana Tijanóvskaya, the Secretary General of the UN, António Guterres; and the Ecuadorian Juan Carlos Jintiach, head of the Coordinator of Indigenous Organizations of the Amazon Basin (COICA), also appear in the pools, which are nothing more than conjectures.
Only if those who propose a person or organization make it public can the identity of the candidates be known.since the Norwegian Nobel Committee only publishes the total number of candidates and does not confirm names until 50 years later.
Thus, it is known, for example, that among this year’s nominees are the Australian journalist Julian Assange; the president of Colombia, Gustavo Petro; the human rights organizations B’Tselem (Israeli) and al-Haq (Palestinian) and the Armenian philanthropist and former prime minister of Nagorno Karabakh, Rubén Vartanián.
The 2024 Nobel Peace Prize this year has 285 candidates, of which 196 are individuals and 89 are organizations, according to the Nobel Committee, which last year awarded the Iranian Narges Mohammadi for her fight for women’s rights.
According to the will of Alfred Nobel, the Swedish magnate who established the prizes that bear his name, candidates for the Peace Prize can be nominated by university professors in Law, History and Political Science, parliamentarians, former laureates and members of international tribunals, among others. .
The Peace Prize is the only one of the six prizes that is awarded and presented outside of Sweden, in Oslo, at the express wish of Alfred Nobel, since at the time Norway was part of the neighboring country.
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