Power poker in Brandenburg election: The results could make it difficult to form a government. Which coalition is possible – here is an overview.
Potsdam – The SPD has governed Brandenburg for 34 years, currently in a coalition with the CDU and the Greens. However, today’s state election could change the political landscape decisively. In the run-up to the election, the strong poll ratings of the SPD were particularly in focus. AfDwhich is being monitored by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution as a suspected right-wing extremist case and which was recently stronger than the SPD of Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke. It is expected that the results of the Brandenburg election 2024 could reorganize the balance of power in the state parliament. But what coalitions are conceivable?
Brandenburg election: Results allow for some coalitions – an overview of the power poker
The forecasts and projections for the Brandenburg election are eagerly awaited. The first results are to be announced immediately after the polling stations close at 6 p.m. In the latest polls, the AfD has always been the strongest force, ahead of the SPD. Despite the close race, the incumbent Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke recently left no doubt that he only wants to continue if his party wins the election. But even if they are successful, forming a government after the state election could be extremely complicated.
Coalition calculator for the Brandenburg election 2024: These alliances allow the results of the state election
Whether with or without Woidke: Are the latest polls for the Brandenburg election 2024then an SPD-CDU coalition could be the most obvious option if the Greens do not overcome the five percent hurdle, as the coalition calculator shows. This constellation would be a continuation of the existing cooperation, but without the Greens. The SPD and CDU already know each other well from the current state government, which could make it easier to form a government.
If the Greens win a direct mandate in Potsdam, they could remain represented in the state parliament despite a result below the five percent hurdle. A continuation of the red-black-green Kenya coalition would then be possible, which would ensure political continuity.
Blackberry coalition, Kenya coalition or grand coalition: possibilities after Brandenburg election
But the alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) has achieved high ratings in the polls and could play a decisive role. If the results of the Brandenburg election turn out accordingly, only a coalition of SPD, CDU and BSW could mathematically be possible to form a majority against the AfD.
The SPD has already signaled its willingness to work with the BSW in the so-called Blackberry Coalition, which could mean a new political color theory in Brandenburg. The Christian Democrats would probably have a hard time with this alliance, however. The state elections in Saxony and Thuringia three weeks ago already showed this.
Trembling about the result: AfD could secure blocking minority in state elections in Brandenburg
Although no party wants to form a coalition with the AfD, it could gain a blocking minority if it performs well. This would give it considerable influence on decisions in the state parliament, especially in the election of constitutional judges.
The Free Voters and the Left Party are hoping for a direct mandate to enter the state parliament. The participation of these parties could complicate the formation of a coalition, especially due to the CDU’s incompatibility resolutions with the Left Party and the AfD.
Which coalition will govern after Brandenburg election? Results also make Scholz anxious
Who governs Brandenburg? A concrete answer to this question will only be possible once the results of the state election are available. The first forecasts and projections should be available shortly after 6 p.m., when the polling stations close. Then there will be final clarity in the party headquarters. The federal parties in particular are watching the outcome of the election with eagle eyes. The results of the Brandenburg election could well have an impact on the coalitions at the federal level.
The SPD in particular is under pressure to defend its stronghold, while a possible election victory for the AfD would bring new challenges. After a series of election defeats, doubts are increasingly being raised about the appeal of Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), who actually wants to run as candidate for chancellor again next year. It is quite possible that the Brandenburg election in 2024 will thwart his plans. (jkf)
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