The WHO determines the number of corona deaths worldwide and comes up with a significantly higher value than previously known – India does not like the report at all.
Update from Friday, May 06, 2022, 12:00 p.m.: The WHO report has now been published about three weeks after the New York Times (NYT) report on the new WHO estimate of actual corona deaths. The World Health Organization assumes that the corona pandemic cost the lives of around 14.9 million people worldwide in 2020 and 2021.
This includes people who were suspected to be infected but have not been tested, as well as people who did not receive timely treatment for other illnesses or injuries due to the overburdening of health systems by Corona. The WHO member countries had reported 5.4 million corona deaths by the end of 2021, and the number of registered deaths is now 6.2 million people.
The WHO report sees the greatest excess mortality in Southeast Asia, Europe and North and South America – together there are 84 percent of cases. India had already criticized the WHO report before it was published and, according to NYT information (see first report) tries to prevent it. The criticism of the government in New Delhi: The methodology used does not work in a country like India with 1.3 billion inhabitants. A day before the WHO publication, India named the figure of 475,000 additional deaths in 2020, almost twice the WHO estimate.
WHO determines 15 million corona deaths worldwide – India wants to prevent the report
First report from Saturday, April 16, 2022: Geneva – Since the beginning of the corona-Pandemic* are according to the World Health Organization (WHO) 6.19 million confirmed deaths worldwide been reported. It has long been suspected that there is a high number of unreported cases that have not been incorrectly attributed to the corona pandemic. An ambitious attempt is currently underway at the WHO to determine the actual global corona death toll, reports the New York Times (NYT).
A team of experts from different fields – from demography to health care to statistics and data science – is working across several countries to collect the most complete data possible on the deaths of the corona pandemic. According to a report by the New York Times, this Technical Advisory Group of the WHO has determined a number that is significantly higher than the previously known number of corona deaths.
Corona pandemic: WHO experts determine the number of corona deaths
While the previous WHO number of confirmed corona deaths in mid-April was 6.19 million people, after more than a year of research and analysis, the group of experts came up with a significantly higher number, reports the NYT: by the end of 2021 around 15 million corona deaths worldwide – more than double the previously known number. However, the number has not yet been published by the WHO – because India is apparently reluctant to do so, as the New York newspaper claims to have found out in discussions with people who are familiar with the matter.
According to the Indian government, there are around 520,000 corona deaths in the country. But the WHO figures, which have not yet been published, apparently paint a different picture. There have been at least four million deaths in India, people who are not authorized to publish the numbers have told the New York Times. India would have the highest number of corona deaths in the world. The numbers of other nations from the report are not yet known.
Corona: India tries to prevent publication of WHO report with death numbers
According to the newspaper report, India contradicted the calculation and tried to prevent the publication of the figures. The WHO experts combined the nationally reported death toll with new information and household surveys for their calculation, and statistical models were used to include the deaths that were overlooked. Most of the new cases are uncounted deaths, the NYT reports. The majority of these are direct corona deaths, but there are also indirect deaths, for example from people who did not have access to medical care because of the pandemic.
India has not provided the WHO with any data on total mortality in the country in the past two years, but the researchers who are supposed to determine the number of corona deaths worldwide for the World Health Organization used figures from at least twelve Indian states for their calculations According to experts, at least four to five times more deaths due to Corona.
WHO report on corona deaths: “Practically important”
The report is “not only important for global accounting and the moral obligation to the deceased, but also very practical,” epidemiologist Prabhat Jha, a member of the WHO expert working group, told the New York Times. “If there are subsequent waves, then understanding the total number of deaths is key to knowing if vaccination campaigns are working.”
The WHO was originally supposed to publish the new data on the corona pandemic in January, but the publication date was pushed back further and further. According to NYT information, members of the specialist group recently threatened to publish the data themselves. A WHO spokeswoman told the newspaper that a publication in April would be sought.
132,929 |
23,376,879 |
Source: RKI, as of April 16, 2022 |
The first presentation of the global data was ready in December, statistician Jon Wakefield told the New York Times. “But then India was dissatisfied with the estimates.” As a result, “all possible sensitivity analyzes” were carried out. “The paper has gotten a lot better as a result,” emphasizes Wakefield, and continues, “We’re ready to go.”
Corona deaths: unclear situation in Russia and China
In addition to India, there are other large countries where the corona data situation is unclear. For example Russia*: The Russian Ministry of Health reported 300,000 corona deaths to the WHO at the end of 2021, but the Russian statistics agency found more than a million additional deaths in the data – a figure which, according to NYT information, is close to that determined by WHO experts number should be.
Russia has also objected to the new WHO number of corona deaths but has made no attempt to prevent publication, members of the WHO expert group have reported to the New York Times. The data situation in China, the country when the corona pandemic began*, is unclear. Officially, fewer than 5,000 people have died from the virus there. The WHO report will show what number the experts have determined for China – if it is published. (Tanja Banner with material from dpa) *fr.de is an offer from IPPEN.MEDIA.
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