The Union is preparing for early elections. However, the traffic light would have to break beforehand – there could be a reason for this in mid-November.
Berlin – If that happens, the CDU wants to be prepared. In their Berlin headquarters, the Konrad-Adenauer-Haus, the party strategists are already working on the election program and possible slogans are being checked for their suitability.
There is still around a year until the regular date for the next federal election. But some in the Union believe that the duel between their candidate for chancellor Friedrich Merz and Olaf Scholz could come much earlier. The surveys currently speak clearly for the CDU and CSU. So is Merz coming in March?
Traffic lights off this year? Confidence vote in the Bundestag is conceivable
The prerequisite for these mind games is that there is a vote of confidence in the Bundestag in December, which leads to new elections. This is not a completely new scenario. This development was already considered possible at the beginning of September, after the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia. At that time, Scholz quickly and accurately dismissed such considerations. “It’s a little opposition idea that people say this word every three weeks,” said the Chancellor.
Almost five weeks later it’s that time again. This time too, the Chancellor is taking countermeasures, albeit more indirectly. In one RTLinterview, in which he once again presented his thesis that the formation of stable government majorities in the Bundestag would become more difficult in the future, Scholz emphasized that he still had enough energy for his office as Chancellor in his three-party coalition. “The strength is not lacking, but it is difficult and will remain difficult.”
The FDP could get out of the traffic lights as early as mid-November – it’s haunting Berlin
However, it’s probably less about how long Scholz will last and more about the question of when one of his partners might run out of strength. Above all, the mood in the FDP, which has recently lost almost every election, is increasingly like a bomb barrel.
The assumption that is haunting political Berlin now goes like this: The FDP could get out of the traffic lights as early as mid-November. Background: The upcoming Federal Constitutional Court hearing on the solidarity surcharge has the potential for new budget distortions, which could give rise to this. The fact that the Greens are also meeting at their party conference is likely to make things even more explosive.
Scholz could be forced to ask for a vote of confidence – new elections are possible
After the big bang, Scholz might then be forced to submit a vote of confidence, which could probably take place in the last week of the meeting before Christmas. If the Chancellor did not get a majority in the meeting, Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier would be obliged to dissolve the Bundestag within three weeks. In addition, a new election would have to take place within 60 days. The obvious election dates would be March 2nd, when a new citizenry will be elected in Hamburg, or the following Sunday, March 9th.
March 2nd with the election date in Hamburg could definitely be an option.
The CSU is of the opinion that it is high time for this. “The instability of the traffic lights is becoming more evident every day. We have to get to new elections as quickly as possible,” says state group leader Alexander Dobrindt, who directs the party’s fortunes in the Bundestag. At the same time, March is a realistic date. “March 2nd with the election date in Hamburg could definitely be an option. “That’s doable,” says Dobrindt. He doesn’t consider the fact that carnival and carnival are raging in the Rhineland during this time to be an obstacle. “It can be combined well. When the polling stations open, many people are just coming out of the pub,” jokes the CSU regional group leader. (Sebastian Horsch)
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