The Ukrainian conquests in the Russian Kursk region have become for the Kremlin the metaphor of Dostoevsky’s bear: “Don’t think about the polar bear and you will see, damn it, that you remember it every minute.” President Vladimir Putin is trying to normalize an invasion that was unthinkable when the Kremlin launched its attack on Ukraine in 2022. The Kursk operation This is a limited offensive on the surface, but its consequences are unpredictable. The Russian high command is once again in the crosshairs. And the hostility of the Russian military towards the Chechen troops has intensified, because the elite battalion Akhmat, charged with covering the rearguard of this border region, is accused of having fled. The Russians are asking many questions that the government is trying to avoid under a propaganda of apparent normality. One more problem in the house of cards that Putin has built.
Kursk is a sensitive issue for the Kremlin. Authorities have declared the region an “anti-terrorist operation zone,” which requires media outlets to have a permit to work there. This newspaper and several other European and Russian newspapers have been denied permission.
A survey by the Public Opinion Fund (FOM) reveals that 28% of Russians are “dissatisfied” with the actions of their authorities in the early stages of the Ukrainian offensive. The same level of indignation as there was during the failed Wagner mutiny in June 2023.
However, Putin has maintained his agenda, including a trip to Chechnyato try to minimize this crisis. And the president has been relatively successful so far. According to the survey, anxiety did not skyrocket among Russians as it did during other past traumatic events, especially during the mass mobilization of 2022. The difference is that the conscription affected the entire country, while the fighting on the border is a distant problem for many Russians, although they have mobilized to send humanitarian aid to the refugees.
The loss of part of Kursk is yet another destabilising factor within Russia. This failure has once again put the Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, in the spotlight, making him the target of criticism from many Russian war correspondents. Some even dared to demand the release of Major General Ivan Popov, one of those responsible for Russia’s impenetrable defence against the Ukrainian counter-offensive in 2023, although this did not spare him from the latest purge undertaken by the Kremlin in the army.
Suspicion towards Chechens
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The offensive has also raised concerns about the Chechens’ lack of involvement in the war. This newspaper has heard criticism from people close to the army that the Akhmat battalion is merely protecting the rear “and posing on TikTok in their new uniforms.” When the Ukrainian offensive began, Akhmat was defending the border. Its commander, Apti Alaudinov, initially claimed that “nothing critical or tragic” was happening, but Russian war correspondents reported that his forces retreated without resistance.
The Kursk offensive has also shown that Russia does not have enough troops to cover thousands of kilometers of front. The prisoners taken by the Ukrainians There were young men who did compulsory military service – not professionals – even though Russian law prohibits their deployment in interventions – this is officially a “special operation”, not a war.
Faced with this situation, the authorities have reinforced their voluntary recruitment campaign in recent weeks in order to avoid another forced mobilizationIn Moscow, unaffected by the war, recruitment posters have appeared and information stands have appeared in its majestic Metro offering 5.2 million rubles for the first year – including an astronomical bonus of 2.3 million – some 52,000 euros in total, if you survive the front.
“Announcing an urgent mobilization would lead to a conflict with society, I am not sure Putin is ready yet,” reflects Tatiana Stanovaya, an analyst at the Carnegie Center, on her Telegram channel. “This implies that the Ukrainian presence in the regions bordering Russia could persist for months or years, and over time people could get used to it,” she notes.
The Ukrainian occupation of Kursk has caught Russian propaganda off guard, as it has had to reconstruct on the fly a narrative that changes, like the front, every few months since its pre-war preparations.
“People are asking questions,” Vitali Tretyakov, dean of the Russian Television School, warned this week on one of the country’s main talk shows. “Not how many Leopard tanks we have destroyed – 11, 12 or 23. Nobody is concerned about that, but what is happening at the front. And people are wondering, above all, what is happening in Kursk,” he stressed live on the Rossiya 1 channel before questioning the veracity of what his media is saying: “We all know that Ukraine is on the verge of disintegration, but it is not disintegrating. People ask me about this.”
The only response he received from the other guests was silence, without clearing up the Russians’ doubts. “We do not have to report on our strategic plans,” said political analyst Vladimir Kornilov.
Russian propaganda on television and radio these days continues to be a litany of Ukrainian attacks on its territory, in which the bombings of Ukrainian cities that preceded them are never, absolutely never, mentioned.
Propaganda
Kremlin media outlets are showing on their front pages footage of a car exploding on the road during the attack that left at least five people dead and 46 injured in Belgorod, according to authorities, on the night of Friday to Saturday. However, they are not showing a single image of the destruction hours earlier of a residential building and a nearby playground in Kharkiv, less than a hundred kilometres from Belgorod. At least eight people were killed and more than 50 injured.
The border region of Belgorod “got used” to war already in autumn 2022when the first Ukrainian attacks began in the area, which was the Russian army’s route to the Kharkov front. Kursk, located further north-west, had been relatively quiet until then, except for occasional drone attacks.
This false peace evaporated overnight in mid-August. The Kursk residents who had to flee their homes in a hurry did not understand anything. “We supported the special military operation, we helped our army from the first days…”, said a woman before breaking into tears in a video recorded on August 10 by dozens of local residents to beg Putin for help. “Please help us return to our land,” she pleaded at the end after another woman cried that they had lost everything.
Meanwhile, life seems to be going on as usual in Russian cities far from the war. In the centre of Moscow, near the Chistye Prudy pond, restaurants and bars are packed in the evening. Nothing seems to be happening, just like on social media, where no one is posting anything about Kursk or Belgorod, not even to ask for help for the refugees.
“People are afraid to say something that could be misinterpreted and harm them, that is why we do not even publish posts to help Kursk,” Katia, 35, an opponent of the Putin regime, told this newspaper at the start of the Ukrainian offensive. “It does not mean that we support the war, what we are afraid of is that any comment could be considered criticism,” she stressed.
“This is a nightmare. What will happen next?” says Viktor, a driver who was born in Chelyabinsk but has l
ived in the capital for only a few years. “The situation in Kursk is not good. (the Ukrainians) can go further, and Belgorod is burning,” he adds with disappointment before openly repeating the questions that many in Russia are asking: “How could this happen? Where is the army? Why are we fighting, but the border is unprotected? Today everything can be seen with satellites, damn it. Did they think that the Ukrainians would not attack? This is a war.” The driver worries about the future that awaits the Russian refugees on the border: “Their homes, their villages, are being bombed. People have nowhere to go, they have lost their jobs, and it will soon be winter.”
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