We have been so attentive to the route of asteroid 2024 YR4 and its remote possibility of impacting the Earth, which we have forgotten another scenario. Although even less likely, 2024 YR4 could also collide directly with the moon. Recently, an engineer from Catalina Sky Survey (CSS), one of the main asteroid monitoring programs, addressed the implications of a direct impact against the natural satellite of the Earth.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 measures between 40 and 100 meters. Considering its current speed and size, an impact would mean the release of an energy equivalent to 8 megatons on Earth. On December 22, 2032, this celestial body will approach 106,200 kilometers from our planet and will also position approximately 278,000 kilometers from the Moon. There is a very small possibility that, instead of entering the Earth’s atmosphere, impacting the white lunar surface.
The specialized centers have referred that the car has a three level in the Turin Risk Scale, which has 11 levels in total. Currently, there is a 2% possibilities of a collision with the earth and it is expected to reduce to zero over the months. For the moon, the indicator collapses up to 0.3%, According to David Rankin, CSS Operations Engineer.
What would happen on earth if 2024 YR4 collides with the moon?
“It’s a small possibility, but it would be great to see,” Rankin wrote in his Bluesky account. If the clash occurs, the energy released would be equivalent to about 340 bombs from which it fell in Hiroshima. The researcher declared to different means of science that the event would be visible from Earth and would cause expulsion of lunar material, although it would not be an important risk for planetary safety.
It would not be the first time in recent history that the moon is beaten by a spatial object. Thanks to the advances in telescopes and cameras, more and more astrophotographers capture light flashes on the moon for less than a second duration. These are one of the largest meteor collision signals. Daichi Fujii, Japanese Astrophotographer, has documented in video lunar shocks in 2023 and 2024.
#happen #Earth #asteroid #YR4 #impact #moon
