Russian state energy giant Gazprom suspended gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria on Wednesday.members of NATO and the European Union, fueling the specter of a shortage of this fuel on the European continent.
(Read: Russia assures that giving Ukraine heavy weapons threatens European security)
the russian presidentVladimir Putin said last month that Russia will no longer accept payments in currencies other than the ruble in response to economic sanctions. against Moscow and warned “hostile” countries that they would stop receiving gas if they did not open accounts with that currency.
(He is interested in: Putin cuts off the gas to Poland and Bulgaria launching a threat to more countries)
“The set conditions are part of a new payment method developed after unprecedented unfriendly actions,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov argued on Wednesday. Several countries, including France, Germany and Poland, rejected Russia’s demand.
According to Claudia Kemfert, an energy expert at the German DIW cabinet, “the interruption of gas deliveries from Russia to Poland and Bulgaria marks a new stage in Putin’s escalation to panic Europe.”
However, he added, “supply difficulties should not be expected for now given that Germany and Europe have sufficient gas reserves.”
What impact does it have on the Russian budget?
According to the Gazprom Export website, 68% of the group’s exports in 2020 went to Europe.
Of a total of 174,900 million cubic meters of exports, 119,350 million were destined for Europe, of which 49,000 million to Germany, almost 21,000 million to Italy and more than 13,000 million to Austria.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that 45% of the Russian federal budget in January came from oil and gas taxes and their export tariffs.
Considering current market prices, the value of gas exports from Russia to the European Union reaches 400 million dollars per day
Last year, Russia supplied 32% of the global demand for gas in the European Union and the United Kingdoman increase from 25% in 2009, according to the IEA.
Dependence varies depending on the country: while Finland receives 97.6% of its gas from Russia, according to Eurostat, the Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) announced this month that they were cutting their ties with Moscow and were going to supply with reserves stored underground.
The target of Gazprom’s decision, Bulgaria is 85% dependent on Russian gas, the same as Slovakia. And Germany, the main European economy, is 55% dependent, although its government assures that “security of supply is currently guaranteed.”
The other victim of the gas cut, Poland consumes up to 21,000 million cubic meters of gas annually.
Its Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki assured that the country is prepared for the total interruption of Russian supply and that its reserves reach 76% of its storage capacity.
Poland autonomously produces 4.5 billion cubic meters of gas and has a liquefied natural gas terminal with a capacity of 6.5 billion that will be expanded to 8 billion.
The country also has the launch in October of the Baltic Pipe pipeline, with a capacity to transport 10,000 million cubic meters of gas from Norway. “We will deal with this blackmail, with this gun to our heads, in a way that does not affect the Poles,” Morawiecki said.
Poland still receives gas from Russia
But Gazprom on Thursday questioned Poland’s claim that it does not need Russian gas. after Russia’s gas giant cut off that fossil fuel from the country for refusing to pay for it in rubles, because now it would buy it through Germany, according to the company’s spokesman, Sergueí Kupriánov.
This week Poland refused to pay for Russian supplies under the new decree, in rubles. He solemnly announced that he no longer needs Russian gas and will not buy it. But actually that is not so
He noted that after Gazprom cut off the tap on Wednesday, “Poland buys Russian gas, but now in Germany, from where it receives supplies through the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline through the reverse flow.”
According to the spokesman, the volume of this reverse flow amounts to about 30 million cubic meters per daywhich “almost corresponds to the requests made under the contract with Gazprom prior to” the supply cut.
Polish President Andrzej Duda said on Wednesday that the supply cut issue will be resolved “within the framework of cooperation in Europe, where interconnectors work.”
The president of the European Commission (EC), Ursula von der Leyen, also stated that the Community Executive will ensure that Gazprom’s decision has the least possible impact on European consumers, by transferring gas from other countries to Poland and Bulgaria.
Duda also reiterated the intention of his country – whose contract with Gazprom expires this year – to end its dependence on Russian fossil fuels, both oil and gas. Poland covers approximately 45% of its needs with Russian gas and its reserves are at 75% of their capacity.
A new gas pipeline between Poland and Lithuania will come into operation shortly, and in October the “Baltic Pipeline” will begin service, bringing in large quantities of gas from Norway. In addition, Poland has a terminal with a large capacity for LNG processing, which will arrive from the United States and Qatar.
Russian blackmail
Russia considers gas and any other product that it can export as a weapon and will use them to blackmail to Europe, Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky said in a video message played by the Ukrinform agency on Wednesday night.
“The sooner Europe admits that it is inadmissible to depend on Russia for trade, the sooner it will be possible to ensure stability in European markets,” the Ukrainian president added. He recalled that “this week, the Russian leadership launched a new series of energy blackmails on the Europeans. The decision to cut off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria is another argument in favor of the fact that no one in Europe can hope to maintain cooperation normal economic relationship with Russia”.
Moscow “considers not only gas, but any commercial activity as a weapon. It is just waiting for the moment when one or another commercial area can be used to politically blackmail the Europeans. Or to strengthen Russia’s military machine, which has as its objective (to destabilize) a united Europe”, Zelensky stressed.
If we are capable, everyone in Europe must be capable
For his part, the Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov urged Europe on Thursday to be “stronger” and find “alternatives” to Russian gason a visit to Ukraine after Moscow cut off the supply of that energy source to his country.
“We have to be stronger, we have to be tough,” Petkov said in Irpin, one of the places near kyiv where Ukrainians accuse the Russians of committing war crimes.
Petkov stated that Bulgaria has “alternatives” to replace Russian gas. The European Union (EU) on Wednesday accused Russia of “blackmail” for cutting off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria at the height of the Ukraine war.
INTERNATIONAL WRITING
*With information from EFE, AFP and Bloom
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