First modification:
The assassination of the leader of Al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri, in a US operation with CIA drones, leaves the extremist organization in limbo: although there are two possible successors, there is no figure that stands out and little is known. what will happen to the organization after his death.
The assassination of Egyptian Ayman al-Zawahiri, leader of Al-Qaeda and one of the conspirators in the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the US, in a Kabul neighborhood populated by high-ranking Taliban officials is a severe blow to the extremist organization .
The operation came nearly a year after US troops left Afghanistan after decades of fighting there. And, now, his succession is in the offing: there is no visible or respected figure within the group like the one achieved, after years at the helm of the organization, by the doctor Al-Zawahiri.
Ayman al-Zawahiri was a jihadi who became the top leader of Al-Qaeda in 2011 after his predecessor, Osama Bin Laden, was killed in a US operation.
‘The Conversation’, an independent, non-profit source of news and commentary from academic expertsquoted by the AP agency, explains that Al-Zawahiri’s influence diminished even more during the ‘Arab Spring’, when it seemed that Al-Qaeda had been marginalized and could not effectively exploit the outbreak of war in Syria and Iraq.
For different analysts Al-Qaeda, at that time, was old-fashioned and was rapidly being overshadowed by other groups, especially by the self-styled Islamic State (IS).
But with the collapse of the IS caliphate in 2019, “the return to power in Afghanistan of Al-Qaeda’s ally the Taliban, and the persistence of the group’s affiliates, especially in Africa, some experts argue that Al-Zawahiri directed Al-Qaeda throughout its most difficult period and that the group remains a potent threat.”
The analyst on jihad and contemporary conflict for the International Crisis Group, Jerome Drevon, was consulted by the EFE agency to find out what will change with the death of Al-Zawahiri this weekend.
“When it comes to global jihad, Al-Qaeda is not just Ayman al-Zawahiri, it’s a set of very powerful affiliated groups like Al-Shabab in Somalia or the jihadist coalition Support Group of Islam and Muslims, JNIM, so That’s not going to change. But what is going to change (in the organization) is what’s going to happen after his succession,” Drevon explained.
Seif al-Adl or Abdelrahman al-Maghrebi, Al-Zawahiri’s possible successors
Succession struggles that disrupt group cohesion can expose security vulnerabilities. ‘The Conversation’ underlines that, unlike the IS, which has clear leadership succession practices, Al-Qaeda’s are less clear. Al-Zawahiri’s successor will be only the third leader of the movement since its formation in 1988.
Drevon points out that succession names can create real problems. “It is difficult to name someone who must be agreed upon, who must be accepted by all groups. Al-Zawahiri was well known for his credibility and network of contacts, and for his decades in jihad… it was not difficult for him to be accepted when Osama bin Laden died,” he said.
The main contender is another Egyptian: Saif al-Adl, a former colonel in the Egyptian army and a member of the al-Qaeda-affiliated Egyptian Islamic Jihad. It is related to the 1998 bombings of the US embassies in Tanzania and Kenya that launched Al-Qaeda as a global jihadist threat.
“His reputation as an explosives expert and military strategist has placed him in a strong position within the movement,” notes ‘The Conversation’ in AP. Other possibilities are behind Al-Adl according to a recent UN Security Council report, which also mentions the Moroccan Abdelrahman al-Maghrebi, Al-Zawahiri’s son-in-law.
The links of the two possible successors with Iran
These two jihadist figures who could be the successors according to the seniority line, have been linked to Iran, especially Al-Adl.
Both Al-Adl and Al-Maghrebi do not have the same credibility that Al-Zawahiri had, in addition to the fact that “these two people have been in Iran creates problems” and even “friction” within Al-Qaeda, warns Drevon.
Another researcher consulted by EFE is Sergio Altuna, specialized in Islam. Altuna details that Al Adl and Al Maghrebi appear as the “classic” names in the line of succession, but the choice of any of them “would have a huge impact and spark a debate about what they have done during all this time and what consequences it has had.” its relation to the Ayatollah’s regime in its (Shia) ideology”.
Altuna assures that it is possible that there will be “a first generational change” in the organization. “The debate exists within the militancy and that comes when the base does not connect especially with these young militants who embrace the ideology,” he underlines.
“Either way, we would argue that Al-Qaeda is at a crossroads. If Al-Zawahiri’s successor is widely recognized as legitimate by both Al-Qaeda’s core and its affiliates, it could help stabilize the movement. But any ambiguity around the Al-Qaeda succession plan could see the authority of the new leader challenged, which in turn could further fracture the movement”, explains ‘The Conversation’.
Whoever he is, Al-Zawahiri’s successor will be challenged to retain the allegiance of al-Qaeda affiliates while striving to remain a potent threat.
With AP and EFE
#fate #AlQaeda #assassination #leader