The city of Philadelphia, the place where democracy in the United States was born 248 years ago, woke up this Wednesday to sighs and lowered gazes. Here 80% of voters supported Kamala Harris. But that large advantage in this key city has not prevented Donald Trump’s victory in the decisive state of Pennsylvania or his return to the White House.
Trump’s victory reflects a shift to the right in the United States and the acceptance of a way of doing politics based on insults, threats and lies that has grown in the last decade. The Republican Party, which will most likely have control of both chambers, is led today by Trump allies. They are leaders who, like him, refused to recognize the results of the 2020 presidential elections and who have supported him in his career despite the conviction for 34 crimes and the three judicial proceedings against him, including one for instigating the assault. to the Capitol.
The unpopularity of Joe Biden, who did not withdraw until the last moment and only due to pressure from dozens of Democratic leaders, and the negative perception of the last four years has weighed against Harris. A few hours before the elections, David Axelrod, who was Barack Obama’s campaign manager, told me that with the numbers in hand regarding the assessment of Biden’s management, the surprising thing is that Trump was not ahead by many more points. in the surveys.
“If you look at the polls, only 28% of Americans think the country is on the right path. Less than 40% approve of the performance of the incumbent president, the president of which Harris is vice president. There is some skepticism about the economy even though the American economy is the envy of the world and has surpassed the rest in recovering from the pandemic. But, even so, there is skepticism related to inflation and the cost of living,” Axelrod said a few hours before the elections. “If you look at the polls in these aspects, you would say that the party in power cannot win the elections. “I don’t think a party in power has ever won with such a low position on the question of whether America is on the right path.”
Country divided by place and education
Continuing the pattern of the last decade, there is a growing divide between big cities and rural counties in almost every state, with growing physical and ideological segregation, especially affecting swing states in the Midwest.
Except for UtahTrump has won by more votes in the traditionally Republican states and in the most divided ones than he achieved in the 2020 presidential election, when he was defeated by Biden.
The Republican candidate has also made some unexpected progress: he obtained 30% in New York City, where in 2016 19% had voted for him against Hillary Clinton.
In any case, almost all states reflect a large gap by educational level, which now seems to be the main driver of the new electoral landscape. The poorest continue to vote Democratic, but the less educated, particularly whites, do not.
57% of voters with a college degree supported Harris compared to 41% who did so for Trump, according to exit polls. Among those who do not have a university degree, the figures are reversed: 54% supported the Republican and 44% the Democrat. It is important to remember that if the race variable is added, non-white college graduates did vote overwhelmingly for Harris.
The men
As expected, the gender gap has been one of the largest recorded in a presidential election. 54% of women voted for Harris compared to 44% who voted for Trump; 54% of men supported the Republican and 44% the Democrat. The gap is especially notable when the age variable is added, between young men and young women. However, most white women have supported Trump, although by a smaller margin than men.
Young men were, in fact, one of the targets of Trump’s campaign, particularly as they were a generation with very little experience in politics before he became president. “They don’t see him as just any politician, sometimes they are younger people who are less interested in politics and information,” Rylee Boyd, spokesperson for an organization of republicans opponents of Trump who have organized study groups of center-right voters in these elections. One of the phenomena they have detected is the so-called “Trump amnesia.” That is, forgetting what the years of their first mandate were like, in some cases because they were very young people at the time.
“It is an absolutely huge phenomenon and it affects voters of all ages. Many things have happened. And people just don’t remember how chaotic the Trump Administration was,” explains Boyd. Additionally, in this group’s interviews with young people, they noted that voters with limited political experience beyond Trump found it more difficult to critically evaluate him or compare his behavior to that of previous presidents.
the latinos
There was a time when Democrats thought demographics were “destiny.” That is to say, an increasingly more diverse country would tend to the left. These elections have shown that this is not the case in the United States. Above all due to the effect of the increasingly conservative Hispanic population.
Since Trump’s emergence in 2015, Hispanic men are increasingly leaning toward Republican candidates in some states despite the fact that one of the president-elect’s central messages has been to insult Mexicans, immigrants and the non-white population. in general. This inclination is noticeable in these elections, especially in Florida. Hillary Clinton won Miami County by 29 points in 2016 and Trump has now won it by 11 points. It has also occurred particularly in the most Hispanic counties of the border state of Arizona.
Some factors, such as the rejection of inclusive languageindicate reluctance towards progressive values among a part of these communities, which in some cases are also conditioned by the experience in their countries of origin and the negative image of some labels such as “socialist”, used in the campaigns against Harris.
Misogyny and racism
One of the difficult factors to unravel is what role misogyny and racism have played in the perception of Harris, a candidate with the strength and weakness, in addition, of being much less known than her rival.
In interviews with voters who support Trump, the perception that he is “a strong man” is repeated, which may indicate distrust of a leader. On the other hand, Harris’ candidacy, accelerated in time and money, reflects some of the features of other women’s races in politics.
“Kamala Harris’ candidacy largely exemplifies what our research tells us about the advantages of women as candidates and in public office. She was an extraordinary fundraiser. He connected with voters on important issues. “Her identity gave her a unique perspective on neglected issues,” the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University said in a statement Wednesday. “This race also confirmed our research on the obstacles faced by women running for office, including the unequal expectations for women, particularly women of color, who run.”
In the United States, women continue to hold only a third of all national public positions, according to data from this center.
Right trend
One of Harris’s weaknesses according to polls was the way she was perceived by voters when the country was leaning to the right. More people perceived the Democratic candidate as “too left” than thought Trump was “too right.”
The eternal debate remains to be resolved as to whether the causes of Trump’s rise are “cultural” (misogyny, racism and the reaction against trans rights) or “economic” (inequality and rising prices).
The two explanations are often intertwined, which is why Katherine Cramer, a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and author of the book that best explained Trump’s rise in 2016, calls “rural resentment.”
“The pandemic didn’t help. In a very obvious way, it showed people that rapid changes can occur that put their health and financial situation at risk,” Cramer explained to me a few days before the election. “When people are in a precarious situation and are bewildered by climate change and changes in the economy and the demographic makeup of their country, they want a story of what happened.”
This context, Cramer said, “makes it much easier for a politician to present a simple story, weave together all those uncertainties and say, ‘You’re right to be so angry and it’s your fault,’ and point the finger of blame at some target. which amplifies the ‘us versus them’ mindset. The preferences of the electorate are part of the story, but the willingness of politicians, especially Trump, to play on people’s fears pushes them to repeat that the end of the world is approaching if the other side wins.
Immigration, generically identified as the cause of the problems, is a factor often cited by Trump voters. Even among those who do not consider it a problem for their specific community.
That reflected, for example, the opinion of a neighbor from Dearborn, Michigan, who voted early a few days ago.
“I don’t know what’s happening politically and what forces are behind all the immigrants. I keep my opinions to myself, I don’t think people feel they can speak freely for fear of criticism,” explained a 60-year-old African-American nurse who has lived since she was 20 in Dearborn, the city with the highest concentration of the population of origin. Arab of the United States and where the impact of the war in Gaza and Lebanon has negatively affected the Democratic Party above all. This neighbor complained about immigration in general, but said that there are no problems in Dearbon and described the city as “a nice, very diverse community.”
According to her, Trump represents a “new generation” even though the new president is 78 years old. “In any case, I believe that God is in charge of everything. “Whoever the president is, we will overcome any trial and tribulation.”
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