The decision of the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, ordering a full-scale invasion of Ukraine defies all political logic, including his own hardened authoritarian reasoning.
With his unprovoked assault, Putin joins a long list of irrational tyrants, most notably Joseph Stalin, who believed that the maintenance of his power required a constant expansion of it. That logic led Stalin to commit horrible atrocities against his own people, including causing a famine that starved millions of Ukrainians to death.
(It may interest you: Kiev, a besieged capital that fears an imminent fall).
Another 20th century mass murderer, Mao Zedong, famously declared that political power comes out of the barrel of a gun. – or, apparently, from a nuclear missile. Mao demanded that my great-grandfather, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev, provide China with nuclear weapons, so that Mao could effectively hold his opponents, foreign and domestic, hostage.
Only similar thinking can explain Putin’s actions in Ukraine. He says that he wants to “denazify” Ukraine, but the nonsense of that statement should be obvious, especially since the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, he is Jewish. So what is Putin’s goal? Punish NATO by destroying Ukraine’s military infrastructure? Install a puppet government, either replacing Zelensky or turning him into a Ukrainian Philippe Pétain, France’s collaborationist leader during World War II?
The answer to these questions could be yes. But Putin’s real reason for invading Ukraine is far less pragmatic and alarming. Putin appears to have succumbed to his ego-driven obsession with restoring Russia’s status as a great power with its own clearly defined sphere of influence.
Putin dreams of a conference like the one in Yalta and Potsdam, in which he and his fellow great power leaders: US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping split the world between them. There, he and his new Chinese ally would presumably join forces with him to reduce the dominance of the West, and dramatically expand that of Russia and China. Like dissident writer and Nobel laureate Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, Putin has long signaled his desire to restore the Orthodox Christian kingdom of Rus’ – the bedrock of Russian civilization – by building a ‘Russian Union‘ encompassing Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and the ethnically Russian areas of Kazakhstan.
(Also: Ukraine and Russia: Is there a danger of a Third World War?).
With the invasion of Ukraine in full swing, other former Soviet republics began to worry, but, as Putin assured Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Russia is not “planning to reinstate the empire on the old imperial borders.” It is the Slavic nation, which is unduly under “the control of third countries (instead of being under their control)”, that worries him so much.
Despite Putin’s effort to fulfill Solzhenitsyn’s vision, his military actions move away from it. Even in his nationalist mania Solzhenitsyn never lost sight of basic morality. As much as he would like to restore historic Russia, it is impossible to imagine him supporting the slaughter of Ukrainians (and Russians) in the process. Putin, by contrast, professes his love for the Ukraine as he orders Russian forces to bomb its cities.
Putin Apparently Takes It For Granted That China Will Back Him. But although he launched the invasion just weeks after concluding something resembling an alliance agreement with Xi Jinping in Beijing, the reactions of Chinese officials have been very distant, with calls for “restraint”.
(Keep reading: Alert in Ukraine: this is how Russia’s escalation in Kiev is experienced).
The affirmation of
than 73%
of the Russians supports Putin’s actions in Ukraine is propaganda. Thousands in the cities are saying
‘Not to the war’ .
Since Putin is almost entirely dependent on China for support in challenging the US-led international order, lying to Xi would have no political or strategic advantage. That is what is so worrying: Putin no longer seems capable of performing the calculations that are supposed to guide a leader’s decision-making. Far from being an equal partner, Russia is now on its way to becoming a kind of Chinese vassal state.
The invasion of Ukraine has also alienated other Putin allies and supporters. Some of his staunchest acolytes in the West, from Czech President Miloš Zeman to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, have denounced his actions. But, perhaps more importantly, Putin’s delusional outbursts have alienated the Russians. With his barbaric assault on the Ukraine, he has sacrificed decades of social and economic development and destroyed the hopes that the Russians had for the future. Russia will now be a global pariah for decades.
(You may be interested: What are the scenarios in the crisis in Ukraine and what comes next?).
When I called a friend in Kiev to find out what was going on, he told me that the bomb shelters are open, and that people are also hiding in the metro stations. “Very World War II-esque,” he joked, before noting how remarkable it was that “a man who talks so much about the damage war can do would inflict war on a sister nation.” And then he turned my question to me: “Tell me, what is going on. You Russians are the ones who keep choosing this fascist.”
Although the perception is understandable, it is not entirely true. The Russians chose Putin at first, but in recent years they have simply given in to his rule, because our votes no longer matter.. Likewise, the claim that 73 percent of Russians support Putin’s actions in Ukraine is pure propaganda. Thousands of people are gathering in Russian cities, saying “No to war”, despite arrests and police brutality. This time, it seems unlikely that the Russians will surrender quietly. In the coming days and weeks, the world can expect many more signs that the Russians do not want this war.
Stalinism did not die until Stalin did. The same thing happened with Maoism. Will it also be the case of Putinism?* Professor of International Affairs at The New School, co-author (with Jeffrey Tayler) of ‘In Putin’s Footsteps: In Search of the Soul of an Empire in Russia’s Eleven Time Zones’ (St. Martin’s Press, 2019).
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2022. www.project-syndicate.org
#Putins #mind